Red Alert Global League: Season 15 - Standings and Statistics

[TTTPPP]

019_PopularityofChronoTanks.png (34.04 KiB) Viewed 11460 times

The other Germany special is the chrono tank. It's more popular than the German chronosphere/chronoshift, but only just. It appeared in nineteen games between Seasons 9 and 15, with seven of those games in Season 12.

019_GermanyWinRateWithWithoutChronoTanks.png (54.18 KiB) Viewed 11460 times

The win rate for chrono tanks is much higher for than Germany than without, and it's noticably higher than the T3 Germany average in recent seasons too. The error on these results is pretty high due to the low occurance rate, but the results in Season 12 in particular and averaged across the recent seasons are unlikely to just be experimental error. In short it seems like more German players should be using chronotanks at T3, since it seems to give an advantage.

[TTTPPP]

Having concluded our tour of the Allies faction specials let's now take a look at the Soviets.

019_PopularityofShockies.png (36.05 KiB) Viewed 11426 times

The first thing that's apparent when comparing this graph with those for Allies is that shock troopers are used in a really high percentage of potential games. The prerequisites for shock troopers are a tech centre and a teslacoil (and a barracks), which is a high bar to pass, but when players get to that point they usually make use of the faction special.

019_RussiaWinRateWithWithoutShockies.png (48.64 KiB) Viewed 11426 times

We can see that players with shocktroopers win a lot more than those without, but the comparison against Russian players on T3 is not so clear. Certainly mixing in shocktroopers doesn't seem to harm a player's chances.

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019_PopularityofTeslaTanks.png (36.3 KiB) Viewed 11402 times

Tesla tanks are similar to shock troopers in that players with the right tech do actually build them. Shockies and tesla tanks are present in over 10% of Russia games in the last three seasons.

019_RussiaWinRateWithWithoutTeslaTanks.png (51.34 KiB) Viewed 11402 times

This graph is very similar to the win rate graph for shock troopers. Russia with T3 wins a lot more than without, but it's not completely clear whether Russia does better with tesla tanks or just with T3. Looking at the last five seasons then tesla tanks have a slightly better win rate than their prerequisite baseline (it might not look it from this graph, but there are a lot more games with tesla tanks in Season 14 than in Season 11).

[TTTPPP]

019_PopularityofParabombs.png (36.05 KiB) Viewed 11375 times

The prerequisites for parabombs are a Ukrainian airfield, but parabombs are only used about 50% of the time a Ukraine player builds an airfield. Since the support power is free damage then the three reasons seem to be that either the game ends before the parabombs are ready, the airfield is destroyed, or the player forgets about the support power completely. However if we compare with the other specials then parabombs are one of the most popular.

019_UkraineWinRateWithWithoutParabombs.png (52.36 KiB) Viewed 11366 times

Season 15 seems to be a bit of an outlier in the results - there's almost no difference between Ukraine without parabombs and Ukraine with an airfield. Other than this Ukraine on T2 seem roughly to be in the 60% region. For comparison I included the win rates for Russia with an airfield and it's actually higher for ten of the fifteen seasons.

[TTTPPP]

019_PopularityofDemos.png (34.09 KiB) Viewed 11345 times

Similar to parabombs then we see Ukraine uses demo trucks in roughly half the games that they have a tech centre.

019_UkraineWinRateWithWithoutDemos.png (49.4 KiB) Viewed 11345 times

With the exception of Season 15 then players building demo trucks did strictly worse than players who got to T3 and didn't build demo trucks. The performance of demo trucks is bad enough to be comparable with Ukraine without demo trucks at all. This is quite a surprising result - particularly if you compare this graph with the other T3 faction specials above.

[ORA_CN-Hans]

We need more Demos!

[TTTPPP]

Following on from the tour of the faction specials then I wanted to try revisiting the faction win-rate comparison. I thought it would be worth trying to exclude all games where a player picked a particular faction, on the basis that the skill level of that player could be biasing the results. For example anjew has historically picked Ukraine in a lot of games* which means that the performance of Ukraine will be skewed by the relative skill-level of anjew vs his opponents.

001_PlayersGettingFactionFromAnyVsAny.png (77.52 KiB) Viewed 11285 times

To get a feel for how reliable this data would be I first wanted to know the number of games where both players picked "Any", and exactly one of them got the faction. Usually when I calculate win rates I include matches where both players used the unit or building (mainly because it's simpler to do this), but for this I wanted to exclude mirror matches.

On the whole there are more matches featuring Russia and Ukraine than the other three factions. I was expecting this because if you pick "Any" then you have a 50% chance of getting Allies and 50% chance of getting Soviets. This gives a chance of 16.7% of getting any one of the Allied factions and 25% of getting one of the two Soviet factions. I checked this against the above graph and found that it didn't match - the Soviets make up only 47% of the results.

After thinking about this for a bit more then I realised it was due to ruling out mirror matches. There is a higher chance of a Soviet mirror (e.g. Russia vs Russia) than an Allied mirror (e.g. France vs France) and so I've eliminated more Soviet games.

001_NonMirrorGamesFeaturingFactionFromAny.png (80.2 KiB) Viewed 11285 times

In order to check this I did a quick graph where I didn't rule out the mirror matches. Sure enough this now gives just 0.7% more Soviet faction plays than Allies.

Anyway - the main thing to check out was the number of games involved, and we're including a maximum of 43 games for a faction from a season.

001_WinRateFromAny.png (74.24 KiB) Viewed 11285 times

This low number of results means that the win rate has a high margin of error. We can't see a huge amount of difference between the factions and the error for each data point is something like 10%.

* In Season 15 anjew made a marked change from this and did not ever pick Ukraine.

[TTTPPP]

In order to try to get some result from that previous post I averaged all the results from Seasons 11 to 15. Season 11 was played on BI-3.2, and the only really significant change since then has been the GPS update (3 min charge time and only lasts for 1 min rather than 4 min charge time and lasts forever).

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England: 48.9%
France: 54.1%
Germany: 49.5%
Russia: 44.9%
Ukraine: 53.0%

There is roughly 4.5% error on the Allied results and 4% error on the Soviet results, which could put them all within the region of a 50% win rate. Russia seems to have performed worst overall.

[TTTPPP]

Yara was interested in seeing the faction picks for players in the playoffs since Season 9. Due to the way the data is stored then all playoff data is lumped together - Masters and Minions. There are only six Minions games though (three in S10, three in S11).

010_FactionPickRateInPlayoffs.png (52.32 KiB) Viewed 11069 times

Overall we can see that there haven't been many Soviet picks in the finals at all, although overall the dominant choice has been "Any".

[TTTPPP]

To provide some insights into whether older maps resulted in longer games or not I've run the numbers on all maps that have been played in RAGL. Each line starts with the season number (just to make it easier to tell which tournament is being referred to), then the map name and average game duration. Some maps were only played once or twice in a season, so beware that there may be some outliers.

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1; Tournament Island: 22.5 mins
1; Winter Storm: 20.3 mins
1; Behind The Veil: 18.1 mins
1; Warwind: 18.0 mins
1; Sidestep: 16.9 mins
1; Bloody Delta: 16.8 mins
1; Keep Off The Grass 2: 16.3 mins
1; Singles: 16.1 mins
1; Doughnut: 15.8 mins
1; Dual Cold Front: 14.9 mins
1; Dual Vegetation: 14.5 mins
1; Ore Lord: 13.4 mins
1; Northwest Passage: 13.2 mins
1; Forest Path: 10.4 mins

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2; Tournament Island: 18.2 mins
2; Northwest Passage: 17.7 mins
2; Desert Rats [RAGL, S02]: 17.4 mins
2; Dual Cold Front [RAGL, S02]: 15.8 mins
2; Dual Cold Front: 15.8 mins
2; Singles: 15.8 mins
2; Winter Storm: 15.1 mins
2; Sidestep: 14.6 mins
2; Behind The Veil: 14.2 mins
2; Warwind [RAGL, S02]: 13.2 mins
2; Agenda: 12.9 mins
2; Keep Off The Grass 2: 12.8 mins
2; Crossfire [RAGL, S02]: 12.6 mins
2; Warwind: 12.0 mins
2; Ore Lord: 10.6 mins
2; Desert Rats: 10.1 mins

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3; Winter Storm 2 (RAGL:S3): 15.0 mins
3; Northwest Passage (RAGL:S3): 14.5 mins
3; Behind The Veil 2 (RAGL:S3): 14.4 mins
3; Pitfight (RAGL:S3): 14.1 mins
3; Rocky Ravine (RAGL:S3): 13.6 mins
3; Desert Rats (RAGL:S3): 13.2 mins
3; Patches (RAGL:S3): 13.1 mins
3; Agenda (RAGL:S3): 12.6 mins
3; Keep Off The Grass 2 (RAGL:S3): 12.0 mins
3; Green Belt: 11.8 mins
3; Green Belt (RAGL:S3): 11.8 mins
3; Northwest Passage: 9.4 mins
3; Keep Off The Grass 2: 7.2 mins

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4; Winter Storm 2 (RAGL:S4): 19.2 mins
4; Behind the Veil (RAGL:S4): 19.2 mins
4; Shadow Fiend (RAGL:S4): 17.1 mins
4; Sidestep: 16.3 mins
4; Pitfight (RAGL:S4): 16.0 mins
4; Borrowed Time (RAGL:S4): 15.7 mins
4; Ysmir (RAGL:S4): 15.6 mins
4; Agenda (RAGL:S4): 14.7 mins
4; Almost Arid (RAGL:S4): 14.4 mins
4; Siberian Summer (RAGL:S4): 14.3 mins
4; A Nuclear Winter (RAGL:S4): 14.2 mins
4; Sidestep (RAGL:S4): 13.3 mins
4; Dual Cold Front (RAGL:S4): 11.0 mins
4; Keep Off The Grass 2: 10.5 mins
4; Keep Off The Grass 2 (RAGL:S4): 10.4 mins
4; Agenda: 9.9 mins
4; BIGGER MAP: 0.8 mins

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5; The Great Divide (RAGL:S5): 26.5 mins
5; Pitfight (RAGL:S5): 16.6 mins
5; Badger Hills (RAGL:S5): 16.3 mins
5; Shadowfiend II (RAGL:S5): 15.9 mins
5; Borrowed Time (RAGL:S5): 15.0 mins
5; River of Gold (RAGL:S5): 14.0 mins
5; Trapped (RAGL:S5): 13.7 mins
5; Face-off (RAGL:S5): 12.5 mins
5; Stanitsa (RAGL:S5): 12.0 mins
5; Race Tracks (RAGL:S5): 11.7 mins
5; Pitfight (RAGL:S4): 9.2 mins
6; Shared Responsibility (RAGL:S6): 18.0 mins
6; Forgotten Plains (RAGL:S6): 15.6 mins
6; Badger Hills (RAGL:S6): 15.0 mins
6; Shadowfiend II (RAGL:S6): 14.2 mins
6; Beyond Destruction (RAGL:S6): 14.1 mins
6; Oil Sands (RAGL:S6): 12.8 mins
6; Stanitsa (RAGL:S6): 12.7 mins
6; Map X (RAGL:S6): 12.6 mins
6; Shared Responsibility r2 (RAGL:S6): 12.5 mins
6; Snakes and Ladders (RAGL:S6): 12.1 mins
6; Uzala (RAGL:S6): 10.0 mins
6; Stanitsa (RAGL:S5): 9.7 mins
6; Fallout (RAGL:S6): 7.8 mins

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7; Arid (RAGL:S7): 16.7 mins
7; Shards (RAGL:S7): 16.3 mins
7; Forgotten Plains (RAGL:S7): 15.3 mins
7; Pitfight (RAGL:S7): 14.4 mins
7; Fury Sands II (RAGL:S7): 13.9 mins
7; Aqueducts (RAGL:S7): 13.4 mins
7; Agenda (RAGL:S7): 12.7 mins
7; Uzala (RAGL:S7): 11.7 mins
7; Lacetown (RAGL:S7): 11.7 mins
7; Map X (RAGL:S7): 11.6 mins
7; Hourglass (RAGL:S7): 10.9 mins
7; Warwind (RAGL:S7): 9.9 mins

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8; Forgotten Plains (RAGL:S8): 16.7 mins
8; River Crossing 2 (RAGL:S8): 15.6 mins
8; Blitz (RAGL:S8): 15.2 mins
8; Marigold Town (RAGL:S8): 15.2 mins
8; Climate Crisis (RAGL:S8): 14.7 mins
8; Enhanced Snakes and Ladders (RAGL:S8): 14.3 mins
8; Onyx (RAGL:S8): 13.4 mins
8; Windige Gasse (RAGL:S8): 13.0 mins
8; Trapped (RAGL:S8): 13.0 mins
8; Mountain Ridge Redux (RAGL:S8): 11.6 mins

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9; Trail of Thought RAGL S9: 16.0 mins
9; Teared Strait RAGL S9: 13.9 mins
9; Shadowfiend II RAGL S9: 13.9 mins
9; The Swamp RAGL S9: 13.6 mins
9; Three and a half woods RAGL S9: 12.9 mins
9; Agita RAGL S9: 12.6 mins
9; Ore Egano RAGL S9: 12.4 mins
9; Sonora RAGL S9: 12.1 mins
9; Discovery RAGL S9: 12.0 mins
9; Wetlands RAGL S9: 11.4 mins
9; Mountain Ridge Redux RAGL S9: 10.9 mins
9; Dual Cold Front RAGL S9: 10.4 mins
9; The Swamp Revision (RAGLS9): 8.8 mins

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10; Behind The Curtain[RAGL-X]: 15.2 mins
10; Darkside Aftermath[RAGL-X]: 14.3 mins
10; Polemos[RAGL-X]: 13.8 mins
10; Mounds[RAGL-X]: 13.4 mins
10; Winding Woods[RAGL-X]: 13.1 mins
10; Devils Marsh[RAGL-X]: 12.9 mins
10; Annihilate[RAGL-X]: 12.4 mins
10; Nomad[RAGL-X]: 12.4 mins
10; Off My Lawn, Punks ![RAGL-X]: 11.9 mins
10; Timian[RAGL-X]: 11.7 mins
10; Amsterdamned[RAGL-X]: 11.6 mins
10; Pitfight[RAGL-X]: 10.5 mins

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11; Timorous Expansions 2 [RAGL-11]: 16.8 mins
11; The Great Divide [RAGL-11]: 16.2 mins
11; Kosovo 1v1 [RAGL-11]: 13.4 mins
11; Scorched Earth [RAGL-11]: 13.1 mins
11; Myriad [RAGL-11]: 13.1 mins
11; Pity Light [RAGL-11]: 12.8 mins
11; Moonopoly [RAGL-11]: 12.1 mins
11; Dirge [RAGL-11]: 12.0 mins
11; Twin Observatories [RAGL-11]: 11.6 mins
11; Yukon Territory [RAGL-11]: 10.7 mins
11; Discovery [RAGL-11]: 10.3 mins
11; Spearhead [RAGL-11]: 9.7 mins

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12; Sullied Valleys [RAGL-12]: 17.6 mins
12; Enthrall [RAGL-12]: 15.3 mins
12; Titan V.I.P [RAGL-12]: 14.1 mins
12; Annihilate [RAGL-12]: 13.9 mins
12; Subjugated [RAGL-12]: 13.5 mins
12; Summer Camp [RAGL-12]: 13.5 mins
12; Jungle Boogie [RAGL-12]: 13.0 mins
12; Agita [RAGL-12]: 13.0 mins
12; Rediscovery [RAGL-12]: 12.5 mins
12; Dover [RAGL-12]: 12.5 mins
12; Schwerpunkt [RAGL-12]: 11.8 mins
12; Chernobyl 1v1 [RAGL-12]: 11.3 mins

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13; Pity Light [RAGL-13]: 16.6 mins
13; Greener Pastures [RAGL-13]: 15.7 mins
13; Sompio [RAGL-13]: 15.0 mins
13; Territorial [RAGL-13]: 14.5 mins
13; Isle of Wight [RAGL-13]: 14.2 mins
13; Anar [RAGL-13]: 13.7 mins
13; Elevation [RAGL-13]: 13.4 mins
13; Abendland [RAGL-13]: 13.0 mins
13; OverKill [RAGL-13]: 12.8 mins
13; Assault [RAGL-13]: 12.4 mins
13; Forgotten Plains [RAGL-13]: 12.3 mins
13; Infection [RAGL-13]: 11.5 mins

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14; Dragonking [RAGL-14]: 22.5 mins
14; Military Mind [RAGL-14]: 17.1 mins
14; Duskwood [RAGL-14]: 15.8 mins
14; Tarback [RAGL-14]: 15.0 mins
14; Rheinpfalz [RAGL-14]: 14.9 mins
14; Three and a half woods [RAGL-14]: 13.4 mins
14; Yukon Territory [RAGL-14]: 13.2 mins
14; War Factory [RAGL-14]: 12.2 mins
14; River Crossing 2023 [RAGL-14]: 11.9 mins
14; Taiga Vortex [RAGL-14]: 11.9 mins
14; Bad Company [RAGL-14]: 11.7 mins
14; Intensity [RAGL-14]: 11.6 mins

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15; Bossman [RAGL-15]: 16.1 mins
15; Overlook [RAGL-15]: 15.0 mins
15; Cow Level [RAGL-15]: 14.7 mins
15; Snap [RAGL-15]: 14.6 mins
15; Dover [RAGL-15]: 13.3 mins
15; Westworld [RAGL-15]: 13.0 mins
15; Pleasant Plains [RAGL-15]: 12.9 mins
15; Glittering Gully [RAGL-15]: 12.9 mins
15; Tank Trap [RAGL-15]: 12.2 mins
15; Timian [RAGL-15]: 12.1 mins
15; Paranoia [RAGL-15]: 12.1 mins
15; Scorched Earth II [RAGL-15]: 11.6 mins

[TTTPPP]

Recently Unano suggested that the nuke timer could be shorter, as there aren't many nukes fired in recent games.

43_MissileSiloUsage.png (42.19 KiB) Viewed 8730 times

We can see that while 1/5 players get a tech centre, only about a tenth of those get a nuke silo, and then only a tenth of those get to use it. It's not completely unreasonable - players sometimes put a tech centre or nuke silo down right near the end of the game. However only having a 0.2% chance of firing a nuke in a game seems a little on the low side.

43_MissileLaunchCountPerPlayer.png (36.42 KiB) Viewed 8730 times

One interesting thing is that there used to be a lot more nukes fired. In fact I remember conversations about whether nukes were powerful enough or not, since they weren't ending games. More recently we've seen five nukes fired in the last seven seasons of RAGL.

43_MissileSiloWinRate.png (39.96 KiB) Viewed 8730 times

Due to the low usage then there's a lot of error in the win rate graph, however we haven't seen a player fire a nuke and lose a RAGL game since season 8.

[TTTPPP]

Continuing from the previous post I wanted to have a look at some example games where missile silos were built. From Discord it seems clear that most people either want no change, or want a small reduction in the nuke timer. Additionally there were comments asking for both increased and decreased damage. One comment I thought was particularly worth mentioning was from Upps suggesting the lack of nukes fired is misleading since the silo puts pressure on the opponent to react, and they then need to attack the building which will cause them losses.

I ran a query for all games in S15 where someone built a missile silo:

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RAGL-S15-MASTER-ra-Server-2023-10-09T212834Z.orarep, Mo vs milkman, Snap [RAGL-15]
RAGL-S15-MINION-ra-Server-2023-10-13T133452Z.orarep, TTTPPP vs Nilhall, Bossman [RAGL-15]
RAGL-S15-MINION-ra-Server-2023-10-13T212248Z.orarep, goldie vs chouchani, Cow Level [RAGL-15]
RAGL-S15-MASTER-ra-Server-2023-10-15T151744Z.orarep, Kav vs ROCKhardFISTnips, Westworld [RAGL-15]
RAGL-S15-MINION-RAGL_S15_Minions_Tailix_Vs._Hans_G2.orarep, Nilhall vs Tailix Killa Mentor, Bossman [RAGL-15]
RAGL-S15-MINION-RAGL_S15_Minions_Tailix_Vs._Hans_G2.orarep, Tailix Killa Mentor vs Nilhall, Bossman [RAGL-15]
RAGL-S15-MASTER-ra-Server-2023-10-21T154903Z.orarep, Kav vs Mo, Bossman [RAGL-15]
RAGL-S15-MASTER-ra-Server-2023-10-22T193234Z.orarep, Blackened vs maceman, Overlook [RAGL-15]
RAGL-S15-MINION-ra-Server-2023-10-22T194647Z.orarep, BigHALK vs spetsnaz84, Cow Level [RAGL-15]
RAGL-S15-MINION-ra-Server-2023-11-05T170308Z.orarep, BigHALK vs fiwo, Timian v2 [RAGL-15]
RAGL-S15-MINION-ra-Server-2023-11-14T154220Z.orarep, Nilhall vs goldie, Pleasant Plains [RAGL-15]
RAGL-S15-PLAYOFF-ra-Server-2023-12-17T152145Z.orarep, not happy vs Kav, Timian v2 [RAGL-15]

Two of these silos were in the same game, so there were only eleven games to watch through. It's worth noting that missile silos (and tech in general) are seen a lot more in team games, but here is what the 1v1 analysis shows. In the following then the times the missile silos were built are rounded to the nearest 10 seconds (since I was fast forwarding through very long games).

RAGL-S15-MASTER-ra-Server-2023-10-09T212834Z.orarep, Mo vs milkman, Snap [RAGL-15] (Uncasted?)

Mo built missile silo at 25:50. Army lead 46k vs 35k. Nuke ended on 1:38 at 33:13.

Mo was already ahead when the missile silo was build. He used tanks, radar jammers and Tanya to wipe out milkman's infantry-only army and win the game.

RAGL-S15-MINION-ra-Server-2023-10-13T133452Z.orarep, TTTPPP vs Nilhall, Bossman [RAGL-15]

TTTPPP built missile silo at 21:20. Army deficit 14k vs 25k. Nuke ended on 5:55 at 25:22.

TTTPPP went low power after a demo truck at 24:30, and didn't recover before the game ended a minute later.

RAGL-S15-MINION-ra-Server-2023-10-13T212248Z.orarep, goldie vs chouchani, Cow Level [RAGL-15]

goldie build missile silo at 25:40. Army lead 15k v 6k. Nuke launched at 35:05.

chouchani tries to make a comeback for several minutes, but ultimately calls gg when he has next to nothing left. bete then asks to wait for the A bomb in chat. When finally ready (35 mins) there are no good targets and it destroys a ref and a rax.

nuke1.jpg (138.74 KiB) Viewed 8639 times

nuke2.jpg (139.42 KiB) Viewed 8639 times

This is the only nuke seen in the whole of Season 15 and I was disappointed that it only came about as a collaboration between the two players.

RAGL-S15-MASTER-ra-Server-2023-10-15T151744Z.orarep, Kav vs ROCKhardFISTnips, Westworld [RAGL-15]

Kav built missile silo at 13:00. Army lead 26k v 10k. Nuke ended on 8:54 at 13:10.

Kav put down the silo 6 seconds before the end of the game. This match doesn't really add much to the analysis.

RAGL-S15-MINION-RAGL_S15_Minions_Tailix_Vs._Hans_G2.orarep, Nilhall vs Tailix Killa Mentor, Bossman [RAGL-15]

Tailix built missile silo at 16:40. Army deficit 51k vs 57k. Nuke ended on ~7:00 at 18:45.
Hans built missile silo at 17:20. Army lead 59k vs 17k. Nuke ended on 7:34 at 18:45.

This match was interesting due to being the only one where both players built a missile silo. Tailix got his down first when the armies were very even. Next Hans wiped Tailix's army and then placed his nuke. The 40k army wipe was unsurprisingly the game decider and Hans won the game 90 seconds later.

RAGL-S15-MASTER-ra-Server-2023-10-21T154903Z.orarep, Kav vs Mo, Bossman [RAGL-15] (Uncasted?)

Kav built missile silo at 10:50. Army deficit 18k vs 24k. Nuke ended on 3:18 at 16:35.

Although Kav was losing when he built a silo, he quickly outscaled Mo and won comfortably, with the nuke playing no part in the game.

RAGL-S15-MASTER-ra-Server-2023-10-22T193234Z.orarep, Blackened vs maceman, Overlook [RAGL-15]

Blackened built nuke at 25:30. Army lead 30k vs 16k. Nuke ended on 1:51 at 32:41.

Although Unano was losing when the silo was built he managed to come back to 24k all. Ultimately the game was decided by a Tanya engagement where Blackened wiped out Unano's army for very little loss.

The chat conversation towards the end summed things up:

chat.png (29.71 KiB) Viewed 8639 times

The game was really good, but the missile silo didn't really come into play.

RAGL-S15-MINION-ra-Server-2023-10-22T194647Z.orarep, BigHALK vs spetsnaz84, Cow Level [RAGL-15]

Hulk built missile silo at 28:00. Army lead 31k vs 17k. Nuke ended on 0:40 at 42:46.

The silo remained powered down despite available power for about 3 mins, and spets was able to come back to lead 34k vs 28k (despite using longbow crashes to clear Hulk's blob). Arguably the timer meant that spetsnaz had to raid Hulk's base, and with just 40 seconds left on the nuke timer he took out all but one power plant in exchange for a big chunk of his army. Due to having map control spetsnaz was still leading 32k over 15k after this and ultimately Hulk couldn't get the power back on.

RAGL-S15-MINION-ra-Server-2023-11-05T170308Z.orarep, BigHALK vs fiwo, Timian v2 [RAGL-15] (Uncasted?)

Hulk built missile silo at 20:50. Army lead 24k vs 9k. Nuke ended on 7:15 at 22:49.

Another Hulk game, but this time the missile silo came too late to play a part in the game.

RAGL-S15-MINION-ra-Server-2023-11-14T154220Z.orarep, Nilhall vs goldie, Pleasant Plains [RAGL-15]

Hans built missile silo at 19:40. Army lead 43k vs 17k. Nuke ended on 8:42 at 19:58.

Another game where the missile silo was built when the player was already in a winning position. Hans won the game about 20 seconds later.

RAGL-S15-PLAYOFF-ra-Server-2023-12-17T152145Z.orarep, not happy vs Kav, Timian v2 [RAGL-15]

happy built missile silo at 12:10. Army deficit 18k vs 43k. Nuke ends on 7:45 at 13:25.

The only example from the Season 15 playoffs. happy was already in a lot of trouble and had to place the silo in the middle of an engagement to try to tank. Kav actually ignored the missile silo and just wiped the army instead.

Summary

Collecting all the summary lines here to make it easy to compare.

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Mo built missile silo at 25:50. Army lead 46k vs 35k. Nuke ended on 1:38 at 33:13.
TTTPPP built missile silo at 21:20. Army deficit 14k vs 25k. Nuke ended on 5:55 at 25:22.
goldie build missile silo at 25:40. Army lead 15k v 6k. Nuke launched at 35:05.
Kav built missile silo at 13:00. Army lead 26k v 10k. Nuke ended on 8:54 at 13:10.
Tailix built missile silo at 16:40. Army deficit 51k vs 57k. Nuke ended on ~7:00 at 18:45.
Hans built missile silo at 17:20. Army lead 59k vs 17k. Nuke ended on 7:34 at 18:45.
Kav built missile silo at 10:50. Army deficit 18k vs 24k. Nuke ended on 3:18 at 16:35.
Blackened built nuke at 25:30. Army lead 30k vs 16k. Nuke ended on 1:51 at 32:41.
Hulk built missile silo at 28:00. Army lead 31k vs 17k. Nuke ended on 0:40 at 42:46.
Hulk built missile silo at 20:50. Army lead 24k vs 9k. Nuke ended on 7:15 at 22:49.
Hans built missile silo at 19:40. Army lead 43k vs 17k. Nuke ended on 8:42 at 19:58.
happy built missile silo at 12:10. Army deficit 18k vs 43k. Nuke ends on 7:45 at 13:25.

Overall it wouldn't be far wrong to say that missile silos made no impact in the whole of RAGL Season 15. The one time a nuke was launched then gg had already been called. The only time it was obvious that it changed an opponent's behaviour was in Hulk vs spetsnaz84, when spetsnaz targetted Hulk's power, but even in this game Hulk went from a winning position to losing the game.