RAGL through the seasons

[TTTPPP]

Jazz helpfully provided the replays from previous seasons of RAGL and so I was able to run some analysis of how the game was played each season. Several of the replays seem to be corrupted, and a few other games have snuck in, but I was able to process the vast majority of games without trouble. To give some idea of when each season was, here are the OpenRA releases that were used and the number of games parsed for each season:

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S01: release-20151224, 253 games
S02: release-20161019, 298 games
S03:    --- " ---      320 games
S04: release-20170527, 494 games
S05: release-20180307, 241 games
S06: release-20180923, 276 games
S07: release-20190314, 296 games
S08:    --- " ---      291 games
S09: release-20200503, 403 games (nb. maps were modified with BAIN balance changes)

001_GamesPerSeason.png (25.62 KiB) Viewed 5771 times

The most recent season of RAGL seemed to have a higher win rate for Allies rather than Soviets. It's already been suggested that this may be because many of the top players preferred Allies (rather than that picking Allies made them top players). However I thought it would be interesting to see a comparison of the faction win rates stats by season.

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SEASON 1
Faction        Win Rate       From Random A/S     Picked Win Rate
England       78/161 48%          2/  6 33%         64/140 46%
France        50/ 92 54%          5/  9 56%         31/ 59 53%
Germany       25/ 44 57%          5/  8 62%          7/ 11 64%
Allies       153/297 52%         12/ 23 52%            ---    
Russia        41/ 88 47%          6/  8 75%         27/ 57 47%
Ukraine       56/115 49%          3/  9 33%         37/ 72 51%
Soviet        97/203 48%          9/ 17 53%            ---    
Random        63/121 52%            ---                ---    

SEASON 2
Faction        Win Rate       From Random A/S     Picked Win Rate
England       92/166 55%         10/ 18 56%         63/114 55%
France        81/135 60%         13/ 22 59%         53/ 88 60%
Germany       45/107 42%         11/ 19 58%         17/ 64 27%
Allies       218/408 53%         34/ 59 58%            ---    
Russia        40/ 90 44%          4/ 10 40%         10/ 33 30%
Ukraine       39/ 96 41%          3/  6 50%         21/ 53 40%
Soviet        79/186 42%          7/ 16 44%            ---    
Random        92/167 55%            ---                ---    

SEASON 3
Faction        Win Rate       From Random A/S     Picked Win Rate
England      126/226 56%          8/ 18 44%        111/188 59%
France        24/ 62 39%          5/  7 71%          5/ 24 21%
Germany       31/ 72 43%          4/ 12 33%          7/ 15 47%
Allies       181/360 50%         17/ 37 46%            ---    
Russia        67/143 47%          4/ 10 40%         33/ 87 38%
Ukraine       70/133 53%         10/ 23 43%         46/ 69 67%
Soviet       137/276 50%         14/ 33 42%            ---    
Random        85/182 47%            ---                ---    

SEASON 4
Faction        Win Rate       From Random A/S     Picked Win Rate
England      122/249 49%         15/ 21 71%         89/183 49%
France        34/ 74 46%         11/ 18 61%          1/ 14 7%
Germany       57/110 52%          8/ 18 44%         14/ 36 39%
Allies       213/433 49%         34/ 57 60%            ---    
Russia        89/205 43%         15/ 27 56%         42/105 40%
Ukraine      189/344 55%         19/ 30 63%        133/245 54%
Soviet       278/549 51%         34/ 57 60%            ---    
Random       144/285 51%            ---                ---    

SEASON 5
Faction        Win Rate       From Random A/S     Picked Win Rate
England       58/ 97 60%          2/  3 67%         36/ 63 57%
France        30/ 47 64%          0/  1 0%          2/  4 50%
Germany       26/ 65 40%            ---             13/ 34 38%
Allies       114/209 55%          2/  4 50%            ---    
Russia        61/136 45%         11/ 30 37%         31/ 64 48%
Ukraine       64/133 48%         13/ 29 45%         31/ 60 52%
Soviet       125/269 46%         24/ 59 41%            ---    
Random       100/190 53%            ---                ---    

SEASON 6
Faction        Win Rate       From Random A/S     Picked Win Rate
England       27/ 47 57%          2/  5 40%          6/  7 86%
France        26/ 62 42%          0/  3 0%          4/ 21 19%
Germany       36/ 64 56%          4/  4 100%         18/ 32 56%
Allies        89/173 51%          6/ 12 50%            ---    
Russia        98/200 49%         14/ 33 42%         48/ 95 51%
Ukraine       88/177 50%         10/ 37 27%         41/ 73 56%
Soviet       186/377 49%         24/ 70 34%            ---    
Random       128/240 53%            ---                ---    

SEASON 7
Faction        Win Rate       From Random A/S     Picked Win Rate
England       56/ 98 57%          2/ 11 18%         33/ 57 58%
France        27/ 68 40%          4/ 11 36%         10/ 30 33%
Germany       39/ 75 52%          4/ 10 40%         27/ 40 68%
Allies       122/241 51%         10/ 32 31%            ---    
Russia        89/172 52%         18/ 58 31%         49/ 77 64%
Ukraine       85/179 47%          8/ 38 21%         55/101 54%
Soviet       174/351 50%         26/ 96 27%            ---    
Random        86/159 54%            ---                ---    

SEASON 8
Faction        Win Rate       From Random A/S     Picked Win Rate
England       45/ 85 53%          3/  6 50%         15/ 31 48%
France        42/ 75 56%          4/  5 80%          7/ 20 35%
Germany       40/ 95 42%          1/  3 33%         18/ 52 35%
Allies       127/255 50%          8/ 14 57%            ---    
Russia        87/161 54%         20/ 38 53%         31/ 61 51%
Ukraine       77/166 46%         14/ 40 35%         27/ 60 45%
Soviet       164/327 50%         34/ 78 44%            ---    
Random       151/266 57%            ---                ---    

SEASON 9
Faction        Win Rate       From Random A/S     Picked Win Rate
England       62/123 50%         16/ 25 64%         26/ 53 49%
France        53/ 99 54%         11/ 20 55%         18/ 27 67%
Germany       91/140 65%         13/ 21 62%         53/ 72 74%
Allies       206/362 57%         40/ 66 61%            ---    
Russia        63/135 47%          7/ 23 30%         17/ 41 41%
Ukraine      130/301 43%          9/ 27 33%         89/214 42%
Soviet       193/436 44%         16/ 50 32%            ---    
Random       140/275 51%            ---                ---    

So almost every season has marginally favoured Allies over Soviets. Season 4 was the only exception with a 49%/51% split. Season 9 has the biggest discrepancy between Allies and Soviet wins, although Season 5 came close with a 55% win rate for Allies.

001_ASWinRate.png (34.5 KiB) Viewed 5760 times

Individual nations show less obvious winners and losers.

001_FactionWinRate.png (58.66 KiB) Viewed 5760 times

In the next post I plan to look at the popularity and effectiveness of buildings over the seasons.

[TTTPPP]

As promised, I've generated some stats about the first queue - buildings.

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SEASON 1
Power Plant: 2444 (506 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Refinery: 2356 (504 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Barracks: 2044 (506 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Advanced Power Plant: 1477 (363 builds (72%), 52% wins)
War Factory: 897 (496 builds (98%), 50% wins)
Service Depot: 531 (454 builds (90%), 51% wins)
Radar Dome: 485 (421 builds (83%), 51% wins)
Helipad: 473 (236 builds (47%), 51% wins)
Airfield: 274 (150 builds (30%), 56% wins)
Tech Centre: 221 (179 builds (35%), 57% wins)
Kennel: 69 (67 builds (13%), 52% wins)
Sub Pen: 32 (19 builds (4%), 56% wins)
Naval Yard: 20 (15 builds (3%), 33% wins)

SEASON 2
Power Plant: 3400 (596 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Refinery: 2848 (596 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Barracks: 2822 (596 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Advanced Power Plant: 1160 (347 builds (58%), 55% wins)
War Factory: 822 (590 builds (99%), 50% wins)
Helipad: 724 (283 builds (47%), 57% wins)
Service Depot: 598 (534 builds (90%), 52% wins)
Radar Dome: 514 (457 builds (77%), 53% wins)
Tech Centre: 220 (185 builds (31%), 61% wins)
Airfield: 166 (102 builds (17%), 49% wins)
Naval Yard: 42 (26 builds (4%), 54% wins)
Kennel: 30 (27 builds (5%), 56% wins)
Sub Pen: 8 (4 builds (1%), 50% wins)

SEASON 3
Barracks: 4267 (637 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Power Plant: 3994 (638 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Refinery: 3506 (635 builds (99%), 50% wins)
Advanced Power Plant: 944 (320 builds (50%), 56% wins)
War Factory: 839 (627 builds (98%), 50% wins)
Service Depot: 645 (574 builds (90%), 52% wins)
Radar Dome: 470 (418 builds (65%), 53% wins)
Helipad: 460 (208 builds (32%), 54% wins)
Airfield: 236 (133 builds (21%), 53% wins)
Tech Centre: 170 (154 builds (24%), 67% wins)
Kennel: 97 (92 builds (14%), 48% wins)
Naval Yard: 6 (5 builds (1%), 60% wins)
Sub Pen: 1 (1 builds (0%), 0% wins)

SEASON 4
Barracks: 6254 (987 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Refinery: 5980 (985 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Power Plant: 5837 (987 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Advanced Power Plant: 2436 (640 builds (65%), 54% wins)
War Factory: 1420 (970 builds (98%), 51% wins)
Service Depot: 1067 (933 builds (94%), 51% wins)
Radar Dome: 923 (772 builds (78%), 53% wins)
Airfield: 716 (369 builds (37%), 57% wins)
Helipad: 682 (288 builds (29%), 54% wins)
Tech Centre: 404 (334 builds (34%), 63% wins)
Kennel: 98 (96 builds (10%), 59% wins)
Naval Yard: 5 (4 builds (0%), 50% wins)
Sub Pen: 2 (2 builds (0%), 50% wins)

SEASON 5
Refinery: 3454 (482 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Power Plant: 2860 (482 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Barracks: 2840 (482 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Advanced Power Plant: 1290 (313 builds (65%), 51% wins)
War Factory: 757 (472 builds (98%), 50% wins)
Service Depot: 512 (456 builds (95%), 50% wins)
Radar Dome: 424 (366 builds (76%), 52% wins)
Helipad: 389 (147 builds (30%), 56% wins)
Airfield: 272 (168 builds (35%), 50% wins)
Tech Centre: 194 (166 builds (34%), 55% wins)
Kennel: 32 (32 builds (7%), 52% wins)

SEASON 6
Refinery: 3895 (552 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Power Plant: 3758 (552 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Barracks: 3021 (552 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Advanced Power Plant: 1104 (311 builds (56%), 59% wins)
War Factory: 838 (540 builds (98%), 50% wins)
Service Depot: 586 (510 builds (92%), 52% wins)
Radar Dome: 440 (380 builds (69%), 55% wins)
Airfield: 340 (200 builds (36%), 57% wins)
Helipad: 259 (109 builds (20%), 61% wins)
Tech Centre: 170 (147 builds (27%), 70% wins)
Kennel: 69 (69 builds (12%), 45% wins)

SEASON 7
Refinery: 4000 (592 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Power Plant: 3690 (592 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Barracks: 2939 (592 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Advanced Power Plant: 1194 (327 builds (55%), 59% wins)
War Factory: 1032 (588 builds (99%), 50% wins)
Service Depot: 645 (571 builds (96%), 51% wins)
Radar Dome: 482 (436 builds (74%), 56% wins)
Airfield: 355 (206 builds (35%), 56% wins)
Helipad: 343 (144 builds (24%), 60% wins)
Tech Centre: 231 (204 builds (34%), 66% wins)
Kennel: 121 (121 builds (20%), 60% wins)

SEASON 8
Refinery: 4362 (579 builds (99%), 50% wins)
Power Plant: 4158 (582 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Barracks: 3259 (582 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Advanced Power Plant: 1145 (307 builds (53%), 58% wins)
War Factory: 1024 (574 builds (99%), 50% wins)
Service Depot: 649 (553 builds (95%), 52% wins)
Radar Dome: 456 (407 builds (70%), 52% wins)
Airfield: 345 (177 builds (30%), 59% wins)
Helipad: 326 (141 builds (24%), 54% wins)
Tech Centre: 218 (183 builds (31%), 66% wins)
Kennel: 75 (75 builds (13%), 55% wins)
Naval Yard: 8 (2 builds (0%), 50% wins)

SEASON 9
Power Plant: 5604 (806 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Refinery: 5419 (806 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Barracks: 5024 (805 builds (100%), 50% wins)
War Factory: 1348 (796 builds (99%), 50% wins)
Service Depot: 948 (775 builds (96%), 50% wins)
Advanced Power Plant: 759 (283 builds (35%), 65% wins)
Radar Dome: 436 (409 builds (51%), 57% wins)
Airfield: 283 (178 builds (22%), 58% wins)
Helipad: 235 (126 builds (16%), 69% wins)
Tech Centre: 185 (158 builds (20%), 70% wins)
Kennel: 127 (127 builds (16%), 50% wins)
Sub Pen: 1 (1 builds (0%), 0% wins)

Topping the list every season are Power Plants, Refs and Barracks. These are the first buildings placed and each player needs several to get infantry production up to full speed. Barracks and PPs are also useful for base pushes. Note that there are minor discrepancies in the number of builds containing each of these buildings which is due to games that were abandoned at the start, but uploaded to Jazz's archive anyway.

The fourth spot has historically gone to the Advanced Power Plant, but in S09 there was a huge drop in popularity. Perhaps surprisingly the Radar Dome is consistently seen in about 15-20% more builds than the Advanced Power Plant. Possibly players continue to use the standard PP, or perhaps because building a Radar Dome is often done near the end of the game.

Tech buildings have had a noticeable change in popularity. Service Depot builds have crept from 90% of all builds in Season 1 to 96% in Season 9. Meanwhile radar domes have had a dramatic fall from grace. In Season 1 they were part of the standard build, whereas in Season 9 many games end without one. The Tech Centre has hovered around the 30% mark, but in Season 9 they hit an all time low of 20%.

SdRdTc.png (22.61 KiB) Viewed 6247 times

Conversely, looking at the win rates for these three buildings, we can see that the Service Depot and Radar Dome are basically at 50% win and loss (due to their pervasiveness). Tech Centres correlate with winning the game - although as always it's hard to identify cause and effect.

SdRdTcWinPercentages.png (19.04 KiB) Viewed 6247 times

Finally I thought it was worth having a look at Naval. Naval Yards and Sub Pens were seen in about 3-4% of builds in Seasons 1 and 2, but for Seasons 5, 6 and 7 they weren't seen at all. I didn't check, but I expect this is predominantly due to the maps not having suitable spots. Season 9 featured two maps supporting naval play, and still only Mo attempted to make use of it. Hopefully by Season 10 we'll have naval balance sorted out ;-)

[Yara]

Great work TTTPPP!

Ideas for new statistics:

• ROI by Unit (and by player)? If that is possible? I assume it is somehow stored since it is needed for veterancy?

• Which player got the most assets / army by Minute 3 / 5 / 10 etc.

• Which player is the placement king? (probably morkel) As in always placing a structure once it is ready -> could be retrieved by simply checking the total value of all structures by a fixed timestamp.

• ... (I think sky is the limit here )

[TTTPPP]

There was a request to compare just games from Masters over the seasons. This graph shows Service Depot, Radar Dome and Tech Centre usage (queuing) over the different seasons of RAGL.



Another request was to compare how often the tech buildings were made by winning players. Here we can see that winners consistently built tech buildings slightly more often.

[TTTPPP]

There are two more observations I wanted to make about the building queue results and then I'll start on the defences queue.

First I wanted to talk about kennels. When I started playing then I thought dogs were a joke unit and only became good recently. The sample sets are very small for this as kennels can only be build by Soviets and aren't much use after the early game. For this reason I decided to include error bars on the graph (showing standard error for binary variables). I didn't add error bars for the Allies or Soviet lines since these would be much smaller, and cluttered the graph. Even taking the error bars into account then it seems that dogs have always been a decent investment for Soviets (at least on some maps). There was some concern about Allies winning far more games than Soviets in S09, but perhaps this is somewhat countered by Soviets with dogs winning 50% of their games.

004_kennel.png (30.84 KiB) Viewed 5759 times

The other investigation I wanted to do here was into the small percentage of War Factory-less builds. Looking at the popular builds we can see that a major component of these are triple-ref all-ins. Here are all the build orders that excluded the WF and appeared three or more times in a season, along with how often WF was omitted and the win rates. For example "3 [PP][Rx][Rf][PP]" means that three build orders started with PP, Rax, Ref, PP in that season.

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Season 1 Build rate:  2% Win Rate:  7/12 (58%)
3 [PP][Rx][Rf][PP]
3  ..  ..  .. [Rx][PP]
Season 2 Build rate:  2% Win Rate:  6/ 9 (67%)
4 [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf]
3  ..  ..  .. [Rx][PP]
Season 3 Build rate:  2% Win Rate:  2/11 (18%)
3 [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][Rx]
Season 4 Build rate:  2% Win Rate:  5/18 (28%)
3 [PP][Rf][Rx]
6  .. [Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rx]
Season 5 Build rate:  2% Win Rate:  5/12 (42%)
3 [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][Rf][PP]
Season 6 Build rate:  4% Win Rate:  7/22 (32%)
4 [PP][Rx][Rf][PP]
4  ..  ..  .. [Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx]
Season 7 Build rate:  1% Win Rate:  2/ 7 (29%)
3 [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP]
Season 8 Build rate:  1% Win Rate:  5/ 8 (62%)
3 [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][Rx]
Season 9 Build rate:  2% Win Rate: 10/20 (50%)
3 [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][PP]
4  ..  ..  ..  ..  .. [Rx]

The error for these results is event larger than for kennels, but it does seem that it has been a reasonably good cheese build since about Season 3. Some of these build orders seem unviable to me, but possibly they involve a sell order too, which I haven't captured. Restricting just to those builds that had at least three refs and no WF, then the count is low enough to simply list them all. A few familiar names appear in the list, and in Season 9 Duke Bones claiming the title of king of the triple-ref all-ins!

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SEASON 1
Flecken          [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rx][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP] (Ore Lord)
SEASON 2
MicroBit         [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][Rf][Rx][PP][PP][PP][PP][PP][PP][PP][PP][PP] (Ore Lord)
anjew            [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][Rx][Rf] (Keep Off The Grass 2)
SEASON 3
t                [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rx][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx] (Agenda (RAGL:S3))
Barf             [PP][Rx][Rf][Rx][PP][Rf][PP][Rx][Rf][PP][RD][HP][HP][HP][Rf][PP][Rx][Rx][PP][PP][Rx][Rx][Rf][PP][Rx][Rx] (Patches (RAGL:S3))
WhoCares         [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][PP][Rx][Rx][Rx][Rx][Rx][Rx][Rx][Rx][Rx] (Agenda (RAGL:S3))
mechANIC         [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][Rx][PP][Rf][PP][Rx] (Behind The Veil 2 (RAGL:S3))
WhoCares         [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][Rx][PP][PP] (Pitfight (RAGL:S3))
t                [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][Rx][Rx] (Pitfight (RAGL:S3))
WhoCares         [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rx][PP][Rf][Rf][Rx][Rx][Rx][PP][PP][Rx] (Keep Off The Grass 2 (RAGL:S3))
Doomsday         [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][Rf][PP][Rx][Rx][Ke][Rx][PP][Rx][Rx][Rx] (Northwest Passage (RAGL:S3))
SEASON 4
Han              [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rx][Rf][PP][Rx][Rx][Rx] (A Nuclear Winter (RAGL:S4))
Gatekeeper       [PP][Rf][Rx][Rf][Rx][Rf][PP][Rf][PP][Rx][Rf][PP] (Ysmir (RAGL:S4))
Digital Jihad    [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][Rx][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][Rx] (Pitfight (RAGL:S4))
Digital Jihad    [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx] (Keep Off The Grass 2 (RAGL:S4))
abcdefg30        [PP][Rf][Rx][Rf][Rx][PP][Rx][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][Rx] (Behind the Veil (RAGL:S4))
Blackened        [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rx][PP][Rf][Rf][PP][PP][Rx][PP][PP][PP] (Borrowed Time (RAGL:S4))
SEASON 5
Digital Jihad    [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][Rf][PP][Rx][Rx][Rx] (River of Gold (RAGL:S5))
spetsnaz84       [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][Rf][PP][PP] (Stanitsa (RAGL:S5))
bµg              [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][PP][Rx][PP][Rx] (Trapped (RAGL:S5))
Anykeyich        [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][Rf][Ke][Rx][Rx] (Stanitsa (RAGL:S5))
Digital Jihad    [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][Rf][PP][Rx][Rx][Rx][Rx][PP] (River of Gold (RAGL:S5))
Unano            [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][PP][Rf][PP][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][PP] (Race Tracks (RAGL:S5))
SEASON 6
Dualwarhead      [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][PP][Rx][Rx][PP] (Shared Responsibility r2 (RAGL:S6))
merimursu        [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][PP][Rx] (Shared Responsibility r2 (RAGL:S6))
beuk             [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx] (Snakes and Ladders (RAGL:S6))
Upps             [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx] (Oil Sands (RAGL:S6))
lundizTV         [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][Rx] (Map X (RAGL:S6))
beuk             [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx] (Snakes and Ladders (RAGL:S6))
WhoCares!?       [PP][Rx][Rf][PP][Rf][PP][Rx][PP][Rf][Rx] (Shared Responsibility (RAGL:S6))
beuk             [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP] (Snakes and Ladders (RAGL:S6))
WhoCares!?       [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx] (Uzala (RAGL:S6))
SirCakealot      [PP][Rx][Ke][Rf][Rf][PP][RD][AF][Rf][AP] (Snakes and Ladders (RAGL:S6))
SEASON 7
Fruttielicious   [PP][Rf][Rf][Rx][PP][Rf] (Aqueducts (RAGL:S7))
jjkramok         [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][PP][Rx][PP][Rx][PP][Rx][PP] (Agenda (RAGL:S7))
jjkramok         [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][PP][Rx] (Map X (RAGL:S7))
SirCakealot      [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][RD][PP][HP][HP][Rf][Rx][Rx][Rx][PP][PP][PP][PP][PP][Rx][Rx][Rx][Rx] (Pitfight (RAGL:S7))
mechANIC         [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf] (Lacetown (RAGL:S7))
Malboo           [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP] (Map X (RAGL:S7))
Jur              [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rx][Rf] (Hourglass (RAGL:S7))
SEASON 8
Dualwarhead      [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][Rf][PP] (Mountain Ridge Redux (RAGL:S8))
PieChild         [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rx][Rf][Rf] (Mountain Ridge Redux (RAGL:S8))
DoDoCat          [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][Rx][PP][Rf][PP][Rf][PP][PP][PP] (Climate Crisis (RAGL:S8))
SEASON 9
WhoCares         [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][PP][Rx][Rx][PP][Rf][Rf][PP] (Sonora RAGL S9)
Duke Bones       [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][PP][Rx][Rx][PP] (Ore Egano RAGL S9)
Zaqzorn          [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][Rx][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP] (Ore Egano RAGL S9)
Duke Bones       [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx] (The Swamp RAGL S9)
Duke Bones       [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx] (Ore Egano RAGL S9)
Zaqzorn          [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][Rf][PP][Rx][Rx][Rx][Rf][Rf][Rf][PP][PP][Rf] (Shadowfiend II RAGL S9)
Duke Bones       [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][PP][Rf][Rf][PP][PP][Rx][Rx][PP] (Dual Cold Front RAGL S9)
Duke Bones       [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rx][Rf][Rx][PP][Rx] (Shadowfiend II RAGL S9)
Duke Bones       [PP][Rx][Rf][Rf][PP][Rf][Rx][Rx][PP][Rx][PP][Rf][Rf][PP][PP][Rx][Rx][PP] (Dual Cold Front RAGL S9)

Also, in case you were wondering (as I was) why the WF-less build rate does not seem to agree with the WF stats in viewtopic.php?p=311965#p311965, the reason is quite simple. The stats in the earlier post are for buildings queued, whereas this post looked at buildings placed. There are a few games where the WF was queued but not placed.

[TTTPPP]

Onto the defences queue! It's always good to start with a wall of text, so here's the item count, queue count and win rate for defences broken down by season.

Code: Select all

SEASON 1
Pillbox: 1185 (230 builds (45%), 48% wins)
Camo Pillbox: 1034 (183 builds (36%), 53% wins)
Flame Tower: 1016 (194 builds (38%), 47% wins)
Turret: 999 (237 builds (47%), 51% wins)
Teslacoil: 902 (179 builds (35%), 50% wins)
AA Gun: 773 (197 builds (39%), 49% wins)
SAM Site: 287 (82 builds (16%), 51% wins)
Concrete Wall: 264 (51 builds (10%), 46% wins)
Iron Curtain: 87 (72 builds (14%), 64% wins)
Missile Silo: 86 (75 builds (15%), 75% wins)
Fence: 36 (12 builds (2%), 58% wins)
Gap Generator: 28 (12 builds (2%), 58% wins)
Chronosphere: 22 (22 builds (4%), 36% wins)
Fake Radar Dome: 13 (13 builds (3%), 23% wins)
Fake Tech Center: 13 (9 builds (2%), 22% wins)
Fake Missile Silo: 9 (8 builds (2%), 38% wins)
Fake War Factory: 7 (7 builds (1%), 50% wins)
Fake Power Plant: 6 (6 builds (1%), 0% wins)
Fake Conyard: 4 (3 builds (1%), 33% wins)
Fake Advance Power: 3 (2 builds (0%), 0% wins)
Fake Chronosphere: 2 (2 builds (0%), 0% wins)
Silo: 1 (1 builds (0%), 0% wins)

SEASON 2
Pillbox: 2397 (342 builds (57%), 55% wins)
Camo Pillbox: 1450 (242 builds (41%), 56% wins)
Turret: 1430 (302 builds (51%), 55% wins)
Flame Tower: 743 (167 builds (28%), 40% wins)
AA Gun: 578 (181 builds (30%), 53% wins)
Teslacoil: 571 (150 builds (25%), 46% wins)
Concrete Wall: 262 (67 builds (11%), 54% wins)
SAM Site: 83 (41 builds (7%), 44% wins)
Missile Silo: 55 (51 builds (9%), 66% wins)
Fence: 50 (20 builds (3%), 50% wins)
Iron Curtain: 37 (37 builds (6%), 62% wins)
Fake Conyard: 33 (20 builds (3%), 80% wins)
Chronosphere: 32 (32 builds (5%), 69% wins)
Fake Power Plant: 29 (16 builds (3%), 56% wins)
Gap Generator: 26 (18 builds (3%), 89% wins)
Fake War Factory: 19 (12 builds (2%), 50% wins)
Fake Radar Dome: 10 (8 builds (1%), 50% wins)
Fake Tech Center: 6 (5 builds (1%), 100% wins)
Silo: 6 (5 builds (1%), 20% wins)
Fake Missile Silo: 6 (4 builds (1%), 100% wins)
Fake Chronosphere: 2 (1 builds (0%), 100% wins)
Fake Service Depot: 1 (1 builds (0%), 0% wins)

SEASON 3
Pillbox: 3860 (340 builds (53%), 51% wins)
Flame Tower: 2261 (254 builds (40%), 48% wins)
Teslacoil: 837 (205 builds (32%), 52% wins)
Turret: 612 (206 builds (32%), 51% wins)
Concrete Wall: 503 (123 builds (19%), 44% wins)
Camo Pillbox: 412 (91 builds (14%), 37% wins)
AA Gun: 357 (123 builds (19%), 48% wins)
Fence: 75 (27 builds (4%), 52% wins)
Iron Curtain: 50 (43 builds (7%), 77% wins)
SAM Site: 49 (27 builds (4%), 41% wins)
Missile Silo: 27 (26 builds (4%), 81% wins)
Chronosphere: 11 (11 builds (2%), 73% wins)
Fake Power Plant: 3 (1 builds (0%), 100% wins)
Gap Generator: 3 (2 builds (0%), 100% wins)
Fake Conyard: 3 (3 builds (0%), 33% wins)
Silo: 2 (2 builds (0%), 50% wins)
Fake War Factory: 1 (1 builds (0%), 100% wins)

SEASON 4
Pillbox: 7963 (405 builds (41%), 50% wins)
Flame Tower: 6598 (536 builds (54%), 51% wins)
Teslacoil: 1270 (366 builds (37%), 52% wins)
AA Gun: 960 (220 builds (22%), 46% wins)
Turret: 758 (231 builds (23%), 49% wins)
Camo Pillbox: 658 (101 builds (10%), 43% wins)
SAM Site: 404 (138 builds (14%), 49% wins)
Concrete Wall: 319 (96 builds (10%), 57% wins)
Iron Curtain: 141 (114 builds (12%), 68% wins)
Missile Silo: 107 (92 builds (9%), 70% wins)
Fence: 85 (31 builds (3%), 42% wins)
Gap Generator: 58 (26 builds (3%), 58% wins)
Chronosphere: 40 (38 builds (4%), 66% wins)
Silo: 15 (6 builds (1%), 0% wins)
Fake Power Plant: 7 (4 builds (0%), 100% wins)
Fake War Factory: 1 (1 builds (0%), 100% wins)
Fake Missile Silo: 1 (1 builds (0%), 0% wins)
Fake Advance Power: 1 (1 builds (0%), 100% wins)
Fake Radar Dome: 1 (1 builds (0%), 0% wins)
Fake Conyard: 1 (1 builds (0%), 0% wins)

SEASON 5
Flame Tower: 3197 (257 builds (53%), 46% wins)
Pillbox: 2643 (200 builds (41%), 55% wins)
Teslacoil: 1034 (208 builds (43%), 48% wins)
AA Gun: 373 (99 builds (21%), 48% wins)
Camo Pillbox: 338 (54 builds (11%), 51% wins)
Turret: 309 (94 builds (20%), 51% wins)
SAM Site: 187 (61 builds (13%), 44% wins)
Iron Curtain: 86 (72 builds (15%), 60% wins)
Missile Silo: 68 (58 builds (12%), 67% wins)
Concrete Wall: 56 (23 builds (5%), 43% wins)
Chronosphere: 19 (17 builds (4%), 59% wins)
Fence: 16 (10 builds (2%), 30% wins)
Gap Generator: 14 (8 builds (2%), 88% wins)
Fake Power Plant: 13 (6 builds (1%), 67% wins)
Fake Tech Center: 6 (2 builds (0%), 0% wins)
Silo: 3 (3 builds (1%), 67% wins)
Fake Radar Dome: 1 (1 builds (0%), 0% wins)
Fake War Factory: 1 (1 builds (0%), 0% wins)
Fake Conyard: 1 (1 builds (0%), 100% wins)

SEASON 6
Flame Tower: 3806 (362 builds (66%), 49% wins)
Pillbox: 2179 (161 builds (29%), 53% wins)
Teslacoil: 1560 (288 builds (52%), 51% wins)
Turret: 331 (111 builds (20%), 49% wins)
Camo Pillbox: 318 (47 builds (9%), 55% wins)
AA Gun: 209 (61 builds (11%), 43% wins)
Concrete Wall: 122 (40 builds (7%), 52% wins)
SAM Site: 115 (57 builds (10%), 47% wins)
Iron Curtain: 85 (77 builds (14%), 71% wins)
Missile Silo: 17 (17 builds (3%), 76% wins)
Fake Power Plant: 13 (9 builds (2%), 56% wins)
Silo: 13 (9 builds (2%), 44% wins)
Fence: 11 (6 builds (1%), 50% wins)
Chronosphere: 8 (7 builds (1%), 57% wins)
Gap Generator: 2 (1 builds (0%), 100% wins)
Fake Radar Dome: 1 (1 builds (0%), 0% wins)

SEASON 7
Pillbox: 3308 (207 builds (35%), 49% wins)
Flame Tower: 2298 (319 builds (54%), 49% wins)
Teslacoil: 1872 (293 builds (49%), 53% wins)
Camo Pillbox: 602 (65 builds (11%), 65% wins)
Turret: 417 (106 builds (18%), 55% wins)
AA Gun: 193 (69 builds (12%), 52% wins)
SAM Site: 128 (65 builds (11%), 55% wins)
Iron Curtain: 112 (94 builds (16%), 66% wins)
Concrete Wall: 96 (38 builds (6%), 58% wins)
Missile Silo: 48 (43 builds (7%), 84% wins)
Fake Power Plant: 25 (11 builds (2%), 55% wins)
Chronosphere: 19 (19 builds (3%), 79% wins)
Fence: 13 (7 builds (1%), 86% wins)
Fake War Factory: 10 (6 builds (1%), 50% wins)
Fake Service Depot: 5 (4 builds (1%), 50% wins)
Fake Radar Dome: 5 (5 builds (1%), 40% wins)
Gap Generator: 3 (3 builds (1%), 100% wins)
Fake Advance Power: 3 (1 builds (0%), 100% wins)
Fake Conyard: 1 (1 builds (0%), 0% wins)
Fake Missile Silo: 1 (1 builds (0%), 100% wins)

SEASON 8
Flame Tower: 2856 (308 builds (53%), 50% wins)
Pillbox: 2740 (241 builds (41%), 51% wins)
Teslacoil: 1925 (288 builds (49%), 50% wins)
Turret: 637 (174 builds (30%), 52% wins)
AA Gun: 245 (77 builds (13%), 48% wins)
Concrete Wall: 191 (46 builds (8%), 43% wins)
Camo Pillbox: 159 (31 builds (5%), 42% wins)
Fence: 113 (29 builds (5%), 34% wins)
SAM Site: 107 (45 builds (8%), 44% wins)
Iron Curtain: 97 (82 builds (14%), 71% wins)
Missile Silo: 39 (36 builds (6%), 78% wins)
Fake Power Plant: 29 (13 builds (2%), 69% wins)
Chronosphere: 11 (11 builds (2%), 82% wins)
Silo: 7 (4 builds (1%), 0% wins)
Gap Generator: 4 (4 builds (1%), 50% wins)
Fake Barracks: 3 (2 builds (0%), 0% wins)
Fake War Factory: 2 (2 builds (0%), 50% wins)
Fake Service Depot: 1 (1 builds (0%), 100% wins)

SEASON 9
Pillbox: 4597 (351 builds (44%), 57% wins)
Flame Tower: 3395 (409 builds (51%), 43% wins)
Teslacoil: 1890 (344 builds (43%), 49% wins)
Turret: 593 (198 builds (25%), 61% wins)
Camo Pillbox: 251 (54 builds (7%), 52% wins)
AA Gun: 146 (43 builds (5%), 55% wins)
Concrete Wall: 116 (29 builds (4%), 48% wins)
SAM Site: 70 (31 builds (4%), 47% wins)
Fake Power Plant: 70 (22 builds (3%), 52% wins)
Iron Curtain: 69 (64 builds (8%), 73% wins)
Fence: 25 (8 builds (1%), 50% wins)
Missile Silo: 20 (18 builds (2%), 61% wins)
Fake Barracks: 8 (5 builds (1%), 50% wins)
Chronosphere: 6 (6 builds (1%), 67% wins)
Fake War Factory: 6 (5 builds (1%), 60% wins)
Fake Service Depot: 3 (2 builds (0%), 50% wins)
Gap Generator: 3 (2 builds (0%), 100% wins)
Silo: 3 (3 builds (0%), 33% wins)
Fake Conyard: 3 (1 builds (0%), 0% wins)
Fake Radar Dome: 1 (1 builds (0%), 0% wins)

One thing that immediately stands out is that Pillboxes and Flame Towers are how people are filling their queues. Seasons 1 and 2 have a very high number of Camo Pillboxes too, but from Season 3 onwards then the meta becomes Pillboxes for Allies and Flame Towers with a sprinkling of Teslacoils for Soviets.

Some of these stats are a little hard to compare, since Allies and Soviets weren't picked evenly, so next I wanted to look at how often the main ground defences appear in Allied/Soviet builds:

DefenceBuildRates.png (38.57 KiB) Viewed 6108 times

This graph says that e.g. at least one pillbox was built by ~96% of Allied players in Season 9. I think this graph shows the impact of the Tesla nerf in S09, with a noticeable number of Soviet players forgoing Teslacoils completely. It also highlights the decline of the Camo Pillbox, and shows that even in Seasons 1 and 2, when they were the second most popular defence, they were only built by a relatively small number of players. This brings us nicely onto the topic of spamming.

It's often been mentioned that Pillbox spam used to be all the rage and to investigate this I calculated the average number of each defence *placed* (not queued as in the data above) per player that was the right faction. So for example this is the total Pillboxes placed divided by the number of times Allies was played, but the total number of Missile Silos is divided by the total players, regardless of faction. For Concrete Walls ("==") and Sandbag/Fences ("--") I've just counted each click as one placement, although it may cause several tiles to be filled.

DefenceAvgCount.png (55.95 KiB) Viewed 6108 times

So Pillbox spam was at its worst in Season 5, with an average of 9.5 Pillboxes placed each game per Allied player! We can also see that the diversity of defences has dropped, possibly due to players learning the relative values of different defences, but possibly due to changes in balance. One obvious example is that AA Gun usage dropped pretty much in line with Radar Domes. The bottom of the graph is quite hard to read, so here's the same data on a logarithmic scale:

DefenceAvgCountLog.png (71.8 KiB) Viewed 6108 times

We can group the defences by popularity (or "spammability"). The top six (Pillbox, Flame Tower, Tesla Coil, Turret, Camo Pillbox, AA Gun) are all built an average of once every 3 builds or more. Below that we have SAM Site, Iron Curtain and Concrete Walls, which are rare, but certainly not unseen. Next we have the other tech defences - Missile Silo, Chronosphere, Gap Generator and Sandbags/Fences. Finally we have the Silo (which wasn't actually built in Season 7 - there's a mistake in the graph due to the log-scaling).

We can see that SAM Sites are much less popular than AA Guns, due in part to being less performant, but also because Soviets are able to make better use of Flaks.

One final observation here - the Iron Curtain is vastly more popular than the Chronosphere or Missile Silo. For example in S09 then Chonospheres were built once for every 100 (Allied) players, Missile Silos once for every 67 players and Iron Curtains once for every 7 (Soviet) players.

[TTTPPP]

So having looked at defence spamming in the previous post I thought it would be interesting to look at the record holders for placing the most defences in a single game. Again here I have used "==" for Concrete Walls and "--" for Sandbags and Fences, and I just counted the number of clicks - not the number of tiles covered by the wall/fence/sandbags.

Code: Select all

PB 49 Happyyy RAGL-S03-Happy vs Juicebox POTH Game 3.orarep
CP 49 Barf RAGL-S02-MASTER-R02-ABC-BRF.orarep
Tu 33 Иαιgεl RAGL-S02-RECRUIT-R01-SMT-NAI.orarep
AA 27 3. Lucian RAGL-S04-RECRUIT-R04-LCN-MCV.ORAREP
GG 7 GoldenHippo RAGL-S01-RECRUIT-R08-GOH-DAZ..orarep
Cs 2 SeaCucumber RAGL-S04-RECRUIT-R06-SCR-DRG.orarep
FT 64 Testosterone Rex RAGL-S01-MINION-R09-TRX-ABC.orarep
Ts 37 Admiral mo RAGL-S08-MASTER-GROUP-BUG-AMO-G2.orarep
Sa 19 Testosterone Rex RAGL-S01-MINION-R09-TRX-ABC.orarep
IC 3 Testosterone Rex RAGL-S01-MINION-R09-TRX-ABC.orarep
MS 4 abcdefg30 RAGL-S01-MINION-R09-TRX-ABC.orarep
-- 9 Bo RAGL-S04-RECRUITC-R02-ANY-GBI.orarep
== 46 Barf RAGL-S01-MASTER-R04-DEC-BRF.orarep
Si 6 Бо RAGL-S04-RECRUITC-R07-GBI-WIP.orarep

Most of these records are due to the games being long, and probably because the game involves a lot of defences being destroyed and replaced. For the superweapons then these also represent the record for number of snipes by the opponent.

Several of the Soviet records are held by Testosterone Rex in RAGL-S01-MINION-R09-TRX-ABC.orarep and Barf's 46-section wall in RAGL-S01-MASTER-R04-DEC-BRF.orarep sounds great. Unfortunately I don't have the client for Season 1 to grab a screenshot.

Happy claims the title of King of the Pillboxes which was during the "Hidden Path to Masters" for Season 3. FiveAces has casted this series, and if you've not seen it then I recommend starting from game one. The game in question is the 3rd in the series and can be viewed here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-L8KupXZ3DY

DefencesHappyVJuiceboxFiveAces.png (101.21 KiB) Viewed 6072 times

The most recent game that appears above is Admiral Mo vs Bug, which is a Soviet mirror match and features 54 Teslas in total. This screenshot makes it look like a stalemate, but it's actually a great game to watch. Sadly I couldn't find a cast of it.

DefencesMoVsBug.png (272.42 KiB) Viewed 6072 times

Finally, I know some people are only interested in Masters games, so I ran the same queries against just those games. Obviously Mo and Barf still appear, but Happy's record is omitted because it was technically outside Masters:

Code: Select all

PB 37 Brutal Al RAGL-S06-MASTERS-R04-FIV-ESK-G2.orarep
CP 49 Barf RAGL-S02-MASTER-R02-ABC-BRF.orarep
Tu 15 Klaas RAGL-S02-MASTER-R06-ANJ-KLA.orarep
AA 21 Brutal Al RAGL-S06-MASTERS-R04-FIV-ESK-G2.orarep
GG 2 Unano RAGL-S06-MASTER-R03-UPS-UNO-G2.orarep
Cs 2 Unano RAGL-S06-MASTER-R03-UPS-UNO-G2.orarep
FT 46 FiveAces RAGL-S04-MASTER-R08-SMT-FIV.orarep
Ts 37 Admiral mo RAGL-S08-MASTER-GROUP-BUG-AMO-G2.orarep
Sa 14 Declan RAGL-S01-MASTER-R04-DEC-BRF.orarep
IC 3 Klaas RAGL-S01-MASTER-R10-FIV-KLA.orarep
MS 3 Barf RAGL-S02-MASTER-R02-ABC-BRF.orarep
-- 8 anjew RAGL-S03-MASTER-R10-ABC-ANJ.orarep
== 46 Barf RAGL-S01-MASTER-R04-DEC-BRF.orarep
Si 2 abcdefg30 RAGL-S04-MASTER-R06-ABC-SMT.orarep

[TTTPPP]

Continuing this exploration on the defence queue, we get to fakes. It's hard to get accurate estimates of how good fakes are, since they're only available with one faction and historically France has been the least played (only 12% of all factions). Probably one of the biggest boosts for using fakes was around Season 6 when the Phase Transport was moved from England to France. The same release also contained fake chaining.

First let's look at the average number of fakes each France player builds.

FakesPerFrancePlayer.png (56.02 KiB) Viewed 6005 times

It might be a bit tricky to work out what all the lines represent, but as a pointer then the first "F" stands for "Fake". The important line is the top one which shows the average number of fakes French players built. We can see that fakes have been making a resurgence, and this is mainly attributable to the Fake Power Plant. Here's another graph showing the diversity of fakes built:

FakeBuildingProportions.png (43.31 KiB) Viewed 6005 times

In Season 1 then fakes seem to have been used fairly randomly, whereas now the main fakes used are Fake Power Plants and Fake Raxs (what's the right word for barracks-es?) presumably to protect against rushes, and fake WFs (maybe to protect against snipes, or maybe just for tanking?) Note that the Fake Rax was only introduced in Season 8. The Fake Service Depot was introduced in Season 2, but surprisingly seems to have been all but undiscovered until Season 7.

So now we've covered which fakes to build, but we still need to know how many. The next graph looks at how common it is to build just one fake vs two or three vs four-seven vs eight or more. In Season 8 then two or three Fake Power Plants was sufficient, but in Season 9 that doesn't seem to be sufficient, with players using a wall of fakes for scouting purposes. (The ability to do this was available from Season 6, but the first I saw it used was by Morkel in Season 9).

007_FakeCountPerBuild.png (27.5 KiB) Viewed 5739 times

After all of these stats then it's probably the right time to ask if we can tell whether building fakes actually serves any purpose. I don't seem to be able to add four images to a post, so I'll put the results next time.

[TTTPPP]

So - does building fakes actually help win games? This graph shows the win rates for Allies players, France players and France players who built fakes. Since there weren't a huge number of France or Fake players then I've included some error bars.

008_FakeWinRate.png (37.33 KiB) Viewed 5762 times

There's not really much in it - fakes might or might not make a difference. Probably a bigger impact is that often it's the same player building fakes and so the graph just shows the quality of that player. As an example, in Season 9 Morkel and Gormented built fakes way more often than anyone else, but they were also the players who forced picked France the most.

I had a look through the four Season 9 games with the most fakes, and the only example I found where they made a significant difference was Morkel vs WhoCares (RAGL-S09-MASTER-GROUP-MRK-WCS-G1.orarep). WhoCares attacks early on, and Morkel was able to use the vision from the fakes to spot the threat, protect his real Power Plant and clean up for the loss of a few fakes.

It's a really cheap tier zero building, and you can recoup some of the cost by selling it again. Consequently it makes sense that it doesn't change the course of many matches. Personally I've found it fun to play with, but only if I notice that I'm playing as France!

Edit to add another example of fakes paying off - this time during the Season 7 finals. Orb builds a row of Fake Power Plants and distracts Ganon's grens long enough for reinforcements to arrive. Another great game, and FiveAces casted this match here (the game starts at 13:45):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCaM1H_I3UY

[TTTPPP]

Having looked at the lowest tech defences, next we come to the super weapons. The Chronosphere, Iron Curtain and Missile Silo all provide their ability in the form of a support power, so I thought it was worth comparing all the support powers in one go.

Three of the other support powers are tied to the Airfield, and one (Sonar Pulse) relies on getting a spy into an enemy Sub Pen/Naval Yard. Due to the scarcity of spies and naval play (and bolstered by the fact that spies can't swim) then there has never been a Sonar Pulse used in a RAGL game.

For the first graph I calculated the percentage of games that feature each support power just considering those where it was possible. For example the number of games featuring parabombs is out of the number of games that Ukraine was chosen, where as the number of games featuring a nuke is out of all games. I also included as a baseline the percentage of games that featured a Radar Dome (which explains the prominent dips around Season 3 and 9).

SupportPowerSeen.png (65.21 KiB) Viewed 5942 times

I looked next at the average number of times each power was used (in games where the supply building was build). (For Sonar Pulse I wasn't sure what the prerequisite build was, but it doesn't actually matter)

SupportPowerUsesPerGame.png (54.95 KiB) Viewed 5942 times

There's a lot of error in the points of this graph, due to the small data set. However I think we can see here that Chronospheres are used over twice as many times as Iron Curtains if they're built. I think this is because Chronospheres have less chance of ending the game than Iron Curtains.

Also noteworthy is that half of the support powers get used less than once. For nukes I can think of many factors that might cause this - the global timer is very long, nukes get sniped often, players sometimes surrender before the nuke is dropped. I'm not sure why this would be for parabombs and paradrops though. The best reason I can think of is that players forget to use them.

So do super weapons help a player win? This is a bit tricky to answer definitively, since super weapon play is relatively rare. I've plotted the win rate of players who use the three super weapons each season, and also for comparison the win rate of players who build a Tech Centre (Any Tech Centre, Allied Tech Centre and Soviet Tech Centre, although there's not much difference).

SupportPowerWinRate.png (54.76 KiB) Viewed 5942 times

The Iron Curtain line tracks closely to the Soviet Tech Centre. I assumed this was simply because the Iron Curtain was a must-have for Soviets, but actually only 380 of the 1477 games where a Soviet Tech Centre is built see the Iron Curtain in use. Players who drop a nuke generally win; not always, but a decent amount. The data here is pretty sketchy though - there are only 87 games that saw this (in fact it may be fewer games, since I'm considering each game separately for the two players).

The Chronosphere usage seems broadly similar to the Tech Centre lines. One question asked on Discord was whether the German Chronoshift was better than the normal version. The stats across all seasons suggest that the German version is actually worse than the normal one!

Code: Select all

Win Rate for players using German Chronosphere: 25 / 46 = 54%
Win Rate for players using normal Chronosphere: 36 / 51 = 71%

[TTTPPP]

We've covered the buildings queue, so next let's look at the infantry queue. The replay files make it very easy to see when buildings are built - the player performs an action to place them. However for units then it's much harder. The player simply queues the unit, and then the game engine determines when (and if) it will be built, based on questions such as:

• Does the player have enough credits?

• Is the player on low power?

• How many production facilities are there?

• Are the prerequisite buildings still there?

• Did the game already end?

Given that, here are the number of each that were queued (not built), the number of builds they appeared in (and what percentage of all the games that was), and the win rate of players who built at least one of the unit.

Code: Select all

SEASON 1
Rifle: 44716 (503 builds (99%), 50% wins)
Rocket: 19527 (473 builds (93%), 51% wins)
Shockie: 1896 (39 builds (8%), 58% wins)
Flamer: 1357 (81 builds (16%), 42% wins)
Medic: 967 (161 builds (32%), 54% wins)
Engineer: 284 (225 builds (44%), 52% wins)
Mechanic: 202 (54 builds (11%), 34% wins)
Gren: 185 (35 builds (7%), 29% wins)
Spy: 166 (50 builds (10%), 43% wins)
Dog: 121 (62 builds (12%), 52% wins)
Tanya: 56 (29 builds (6%), 50% wins)
Thief: 34 (13 builds (3%), 58% wins)

SEASON 2
Rifle: 54390 (592 builds (99%), 50% wins)
Rocket: 21270 (564 builds (95%), 51% wins)
Medic: 2456 (267 builds (45%), 54% wins)
Flamer: 808 (68 builds (11%), 38% wins)
Shockie: 603 (17 builds (3%), 59% wins)
Engineer: 349 (273 builds (46%), 51% wins)
Mechanic: 313 (67 builds (11%), 50% wins)
Gren: 254 (43 builds (7%), 44% wins)
Spy: 244 (62 builds (10%), 53% wins)
Tanya: 108 (55 builds (9%), 65% wins)
Dog: 65 (25 builds (4%), 52% wins)
Thief: 34 (13 builds (2%), 69% wins)

SEASON 3
Rifle: 89478 (631 builds (99%), 50% wins)
Rocket: 27133 (592 builds (92%), 52% wins)
Medic: 2617 (202 builds (32%), 50% wins)
Shockie: 1417 (29 builds (5%), 66% wins)
Flamer: 997 (69 builds (11%), 39% wins)
Engineer: 620 (511 builds (80%), 50% wins)
Gren: 379 (74 builds (12%), 47% wins)
Mechanic: 300 (58 builds (9%), 52% wins)
Thief: 169 (21 builds (3%), 52% wins)
Dog: 168 (88 builds (14%), 50% wins)
Spy: 131 (33 builds (5%), 48% wins)
Tanya: 87 (42 builds (7%), 56% wins)

SEASON 4
Rifle: 157121 (978 builds (99%), 50% wins)
Rocket: 53315 (946 builds (96%), 51% wins)
Medic: 2976 (266 builds (27%), 50% wins)
Shockie: 2053 (41 builds (4%), 51% wins)
Flamer: 1685 (128 builds (13%), 40% wins)
Engineer: 871 (718 builds (73%), 51% wins)
Gren: 672 (123 builds (12%), 51% wins)
Tanya: 306 (82 builds (8%), 63% wins)
Mechanic: 302 (58 builds (6%), 64% wins)
Spy: 238 (49 builds (5%), 59% wins)
Dog: 210 (82 builds (8%), 58% wins)
Thief: 28 (11 builds (1%), 18% wins)

SEASON 5
Rifle: 78750 (480 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Rocket: 26947 (460 builds (95%), 50% wins)
Shockie: 2252 (36 builds (7%), 61% wins)
Flamer: 1248 (75 builds (16%), 34% wins)
Medic: 646 (106 builds (22%), 49% wins)
Engineer: 330 (275 builds (57%), 50% wins)
Gren: 300 (71 builds (15%), 45% wins)
Tanya: 136 (46 builds (10%), 65% wins)
Mechanic: 100 (34 builds (7%), 50% wins)
Dog: 54 (28 builds (6%), 52% wins)
Spy: 37 (15 builds (3%), 60% wins)
Thief: 2 (1 builds (0%), 0% wins)

SEASON 6
Rifle: 87494 (550 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Rocket: 27181 (524 builds (95%), 51% wins)
Shockie: 1617 (34 builds (6%), 74% wins)
Gren: 939 (107 builds (19%), 34% wins)
Flamer: 500 (64 builds (12%), 41% wins)
Engineer: 416 (339 builds (61%), 52% wins)
Medic: 390 (75 builds (14%), 56% wins)
Dog: 154 (68 builds (12%), 44% wins)
Tanya: 52 (15 builds (3%), 67% wins)
Mechanic: 47 (23 builds (4%), 61% wins)
Spy: 21 (5 builds (1%), 60% wins)
Thief: 16 (8 builds (1%), 38% wins)

SEASON 7
Rifle: 97615 (591 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Rocket: 33349 (572 builds (97%), 51% wins)
Shockie: 1232 (28 builds (5%), 75% wins)
Flamer: 1204 (80 builds (14%), 59% wins)
Medic: 1070 (134 builds (23%), 59% wins)
Engineer: 634 (451 builds (76%), 52% wins)
Gren: 400 (88 builds (15%), 49% wins)
Thief: 234 (86 builds (15%), 60% wins)
Mechanic: 215 (52 builds (9%), 67% wins)
Dog: 192 (115 builds (19%), 59% wins)
Tanya: 70 (37 builds (6%), 70% wins)
Spy: 59 (27 builds (5%), 74% wins)

SEASON 8
Rifle: 109212 (581 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Rocket: 33222 (557 builds (96%), 50% wins)
Flamer: 1561 (122 builds (21%), 53% wins)
Shockie: 1132 (29 builds (5%), 66% wins)
Engineer: 731 (495 builds (85%), 51% wins)
Medic: 592 (143 builds (25%), 55% wins)
Gren: 415 (93 builds (16%), 47% wins)
Mechanic: 189 (52 builds (9%), 60% wins)
Dog: 143 (71 builds (12%), 55% wins)
Spy: 106 (27 builds (5%), 67% wins)
Thief: 103 (31 builds (5%), 45% wins)
Tanya: 88 (39 builds (7%), 59% wins)

SEASON 9
Rifle: 164839 (803 builds (100%), 50% wins)
Rocket: 50952 (780 builds (97%), 51% wins)
Flamer: 1632 (131 builds (16%), 43% wins)
Medic: 1499 (261 builds (32%), 60% wins)
Engineer: 936 (720 builds (89%), 51% wins)
Shockie: 604 (14 builds (2%), 77% wins)
Gren: 534 (118 builds (15%), 46% wins)
Mechanic: 504 (112 builds (14%), 54% wins)
Dog: 158 (124 builds (15%), 51% wins)
Tanya: 113 (43 builds (5%), 69% wins)
Spy: 51 (23 builds (3%), 74% wins)
Thief: 34 (12 builds (1%), 30% wins)

The first thing that stands out in these numbers is how many more rifles and rockets are queued than anything else. In the games I looked at then there were 883615 rifles and 292896 rockets queued. That makes an average ratio of almost exactly 3 rifles to every rocket.

The next thing I thought was interesting was the third placed unit. Over the seasons this has changed - S01 Shockie, S02-04 Medic, S05-07 Shockie, S08-09 Flamer. Partly this is due to how popular Allies and Soviets were each season.

At the bottom of the list there are the thief and spy (and Tanya in S08). These are precision units that it doesn't make sense to spam.

[TTTPPP]

In the last post we looked at the numbers, but I failed to include any graphs. In post this then I wanted to fix that.

Plotting the queue count for each unit then we can see that it has generally increased over the years. Since RAGL started then the average number of rifles queued per game has more than doubled.

011_InfQueueCount.png (40.41 KiB) Viewed 5895 times

The graph also gives us a little insight into the rockets and shockies, but we need to zoom in to see much more.

011_InfQueueCount2.png (65.46 KiB) Viewed 5895 times

From this graph then we can see a little more about shockies, medics and flamers. It may seem surprising that shock troopers are in third place given how infrequently they're seen, but we're just considering the average number queued per game by players using an appropriate faction. Russian players queue more shock troopers than Allies players queue medics or Soviet players queue flamers. Presumably shock troopers are being spammed in the games they're used, since tier three isn't seen very often. In release-20180923 they had a price increase and this coincides with a drop from 16 shockies per Russian player in Season 5 to 8 in Season 6.

011_InfQueueCount3.png (78.33 KiB) Viewed 5895 times

Zooming in still further we can see that engineers and mechanics have had a resurgence, but that everything else has stayed roughly the same. The thieves in Season 5 are perhaps worth an honourable mention - one player built two thieves in one game but sadly they lost.

[lawANDorder]

The graphs must be really interesting if you can associate the colors Thanks for the explanation!

[TTTPPP]

I mentioned already that the overall rifle to rocket ratio is pretty much 3:1 when averaged across all seasons. Here's a quick graph showing the trend:

012_RifleRocketRatio.png (29.91 KiB) Viewed 5862 times

For the first couple of seasons there were considerably more rockets, but since about Season 3 we've seen this hover around the 3:1 mark.

Usually the question asked about rifle to rocket ratios is whether a 2:1 or 3:1 ratio is better. For every build I rounded the rifle-rocket ratio to the nearest whole number and then bucketed into one of the following: 1 or fewer, 2, 3, 4-5, 6 or higher. These buckets were chosen to be broadly a similar size:

012_RifleRocketBuildRate.png (47.3 KiB) Viewed 5764 times

We can see that 3:1 has steadily increased in popularity, while 2:1 and below have fallen. Some players adapt their ratio as the game goes on, but I've simply considered their overall queue rate for rifles and rockets.

012_RifleRocketWinRate.png (46.8 KiB) Viewed 5764 times

Next we can look at the win rates for the different ratios. Broadly speaking 6:1 or higher seems to be a mistake. A 1:1 ratio or more rockets than rifles also seems risky, although there were peaks in Seasons 5 and 7 when it seems to have paid off. I guessed that these might be caused by players only queueing rifles, and then mixing rockets in as they're needed (since this could result in a huge number more rifles queued than rockets at the point the game ended). When I just investigated the first hundred infantry produced by each player then those peaks disappeared, and 1:1 also started to look like a suboptimal strategy.

Discounting these then it looks like recently 3:1 has been the best ratio, although there's really not much to call between the three middle ratios.

[JackoDerp]

This thread needs more publicity because frankly these stats are super cool to look at.
What's the data like in terms of game length as seasons progress?