Red Alert Global League: Season 15 - Standings and Statistics

TTTPPP · Post by **TTTPPP** » Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:53 am

: 019_PopularityofChronoTanks.png (34.04 KiB) Viewed 1193 times

The other Germany special is the chrono tank. It's more popular than the German chronosphere/chronoshift, but only just. It appeared in nineteen games between Seasons 9 and 15, with seven of those games in Season 12.

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The win rate for chrono tanks is much higher for than Germany than without, and it's noticably higher than the T3 Germany average in recent seasons too. The error on these results is pretty high due to the low occurance rate, but the results in Season 12 in particular and averaged across the recent seasons are unlikely to just be experimental error. In short it seems like more German players should be using chronotanks at T3, since it seems to give an advantage.

TTTPPP · Post by **TTTPPP** » Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:54 pm

Having concluded our tour of the Allies faction specials let's now take a look at the Soviets.

: 019_PopularityofShockies.png (36.05 KiB) Viewed 1159 times

The first thing that's apparent when comparing this graph with those for Allies is that shock troopers are used in a really high percentage of potential games. The prerequisites for shock troopers are a tech centre and a teslacoil (and a barracks), which is a high bar to pass, but when players get to that point they usually make use of the faction special.

: 019_RussiaWinRateWithWithoutShockies.png (48.64 KiB) Viewed 1159 times

We can see that players with shocktroopers win a lot more than those without, but the comparison against Russian players on T3 is not so clear. Certainly mixing in shocktroopers doesn't seem to harm a player's chances.

TTTPPP · Post by **TTTPPP** » Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:49 am

: 019_PopularityofTeslaTanks.png (36.3 KiB) Viewed 1135 times

Tesla tanks are similar to shock troopers in that players with the right tech do actually build them. Shockies and tesla tanks are present in over 10% of Russia games in the last three seasons.

: 019_RussiaWinRateWithWithoutTeslaTanks.png (51.34 KiB) Viewed 1135 times

This graph is very similar to the win rate graph for shock troopers. Russia with T3 wins a lot more than without, but it's not completely clear whether Russia does better with tesla tanks or just with T3. Looking at the last five seasons then tesla tanks have a slightly better win rate than their prerequisite baseline (it might not look it from this graph, but there are a lot more games with tesla tanks in Season 14 than in Season 11).

TTTPPP · Post by **TTTPPP** » Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:18 pm

: 019_PopularityofParabombs.png (36.05 KiB) Viewed 1108 times

The prerequisites for parabombs are a Ukrainian airfield, but parabombs are only used about 50% of the time a Ukraine player builds an airfield. Since the support power is free damage then the three reasons seem to be that either the game ends before the parabombs are ready, the airfield is destroyed, or the player forgets about the support power completely. However if we compare with the other specials then parabombs are one of the most popular.

: 019_UkraineWinRateWithWithoutParabombs.png (52.36 KiB) Viewed 1099 times

Season 15 seems to be a bit of an outlier in the results - there's almost no difference between Ukraine without parabombs and Ukraine with an airfield. Other than this Ukraine on T2 seem roughly to be in the 60% region. For comparison I included the win rates for Russia with an airfield and it's actually higher for ten of the fifteen seasons.

TTTPPP · Post by **TTTPPP** » Sat Feb 24, 2024 11:19 am

: 019_PopularityofDemos.png (34.09 KiB) Viewed 1078 times

Similar to parabombs then we see Ukraine uses demo trucks in roughly half the games that they have a tech centre.

: 019_UkraineWinRateWithWithoutDemos.png (49.4 KiB) Viewed 1078 times

With the exception of Season 15 then players building demo trucks did strictly worse than players who got to T3 and didn't build demo trucks. The performance of demo trucks is bad enough to be comparable with Ukraine without demo trucks at all. This is quite a surprising result - particularly if you compare this graph with the other T3 faction specials above.

ORA_CN-Hans · Post by **ORA_CN-Hans** » Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:49 pm

We need more Demos!

TTTPPP · Post by **TTTPPP** » Sun Feb 25, 2024 8:38 pm

Following on from the tour of the faction specials then I wanted to try revisiting the faction win-rate comparison. I thought it would be worth trying to exclude all games where a player picked a particular faction, on the basis that the skill level of that player could be biasing the results. For example anjew has historically picked Ukraine in a lot of games* which means that the performance of Ukraine will be skewed by the relative skill-level of anjew vs his opponents.

: 001_PlayersGettingFactionFromAnyVsAny.png (77.52 KiB) Viewed 1018 times

To get a feel for how reliable this data would be I first wanted to know the number of games where both players picked "Any", and exactly one of them got the faction. Usually when I calculate win rates I include matches where both players used the unit or building (mainly because it's simpler to do this), but for this I wanted to exclude mirror matches.

On the whole there are more matches featuring Russia and Ukraine than the other three factions. I was expecting this because if you pick "Any" then you have a 50% chance of getting Allies and 50% chance of getting Soviets. This gives a chance of 16.7% of getting any one of the Allied factions and 25% of getting one of the two Soviet factions. I checked this against the above graph and found that it didn't match - the Soviets make up only 47% of the results.

After thinking about this for a bit more then I realised it was due to ruling out mirror matches. There is a higher chance of a Soviet mirror (e.g. Russia vs Russia) than an Allied mirror (e.g. France vs France) and so I've eliminated more Soviet games.

: 001_NonMirrorGamesFeaturingFactionFromAny.png (80.2 KiB) Viewed 1018 times

In order to check this I did a quick graph where I didn't rule out the mirror matches. Sure enough this now gives just 0.7% more Soviet faction plays than Allies.

Anyway - the main thing to check out was the number of games involved, and we're including a maximum of 43 games for a faction from a season.

: 001_WinRateFromAny.png (74.24 KiB) Viewed 1018 times

This low number of results means that the win rate has a high margin of error. We can't see a huge amount of difference between the factions and the error for each data point is something like 10%.

* In Season 15 anjew made a marked change from this and did not ever pick Ukraine.

TTTPPP · Post by **TTTPPP** » Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:14 am

In order to try to get some result from that previous post I averaged all the results from Seasons 11 to 15. Season 11 was played on BI-3.2, and the only really significant change since then has been the GPS update (3 min charge time and only lasts for 1 min rather than 4 min charge time and lasts forever).