Red Alert Global League: Season 13 - Standings and Statistics
Re: Red Alert Global League: Season 13 - Standings and Statistics
At this point in the RAGL Through The Seasons thread I looked into common messages sent by players. Since I already had the code written I thought I might as well extend the stats up to Season 13.
The first thing that stands out here is that these numbers don't match the ones I got previously. For example - last time I thought 50% of players said "glhf" in Season 8, but this time it's nearer 65%. Obviously I've made a mistake in one of these calculations (or maybe both?) but I've checked the query this time and it looks right, so I'm inclined to think these are the real numbers.
Checking out the win rates then we find that "gl" is the best message to send in the modern game. Incidentally I tried various typo versions and you can pretty much find a game for any key slip that you like - something to bare in mind if you're worried that other players might be perfect.
Finally here's the win rate of players who said "gg" (or "gg wp") before their opponent. We can see that it's generally fallen over time, but might have started picking up again in Season 13.
The first thing that stands out here is that these numbers don't match the ones I got previously. For example - last time I thought 50% of players said "glhf" in Season 8, but this time it's nearer 65%. Obviously I've made a mistake in one of these calculations (or maybe both?) but I've checked the query this time and it looks right, so I'm inclined to think these are the real numbers.
Checking out the win rates then we find that "gl" is the best message to send in the modern game. Incidentally I tried various typo versions and you can pretty much find a game for any key slip that you like - something to bare in mind if you're worried that other players might be perfect.
Finally here's the win rate of players who said "gg" (or "gg wp") before their opponent. We can see that it's generally fallen over time, but might have started picking up again in Season 13.
Re: Red Alert Global League: Season 13 - Standings and Statistics
here). The average game length has stayed pretty constant though.
Only 10% of games are longer than 20 minutes, the vast majority are between 5 and 20 minutes.
Finally I revisited faction win rates after considering that usually I include matches where both players have a particular attribute. This graph shows the kind difference it can make when we look at the win rate of e.g. Allies against "not Allies". The "vs Anyone" lines are a repeat of what we saw in an earlier graph.
The first few seasons had some crazily long games. Season 13 featured the longest game since Season 4 (relive that pain with Kaution's cast Only 10% of games are longer than 20 minutes, the vast majority are between 5 and 20 minutes.
Finally I revisited faction win rates after considering that usually I include matches where both players have a particular attribute. This graph shows the kind difference it can make when we look at the win rate of e.g. Allies against "not Allies". The "vs Anyone" lines are a repeat of what we saw in an earlier graph.
Re: Red Alert Global League: Season 13 - Standings and Statistics
In this post I wanted to look at a few factors that might impact game length.
First we can see that Minions have recently had longer games than Masters, but in Seasons 9, 10 and 11 there wasn't much difference, and before this Masters had longer games. Potentially this is due to a low skill gap in Minions, or maybe it's players failing to close out games.
Looking at how faction impacts game length then there's no obvious pattern. I originally hoped to find evidence of stalemates in Allies late games, but even if it's here then it's not significant enough to show through.
Finally I used the build order list from earlier to compare game lengths. Comparing this with the win rate graph from earlier then we can see the shorter games are for the 'worse' build orders ("Other PP,Rx,Rf,Rf" and "Other"), but the longer games don't necessarily correspond to better build orders. In Seasons 12 and 13 one of the shortest game lengths was for "PP,Rx,Rf,Rf,PP,WF,Rf,Rx" which was one of the best performing build orders, so there's another exception to the rule.
First we can see that Minions have recently had longer games than Masters, but in Seasons 9, 10 and 11 there wasn't much difference, and before this Masters had longer games. Potentially this is due to a low skill gap in Minions, or maybe it's players failing to close out games.
Looking at how faction impacts game length then there's no obvious pattern. I originally hoped to find evidence of stalemates in Allies late games, but even if it's here then it's not significant enough to show through.
Finally I used the build order list from earlier to compare game lengths. Comparing this with the win rate graph from earlier then we can see the shorter games are for the 'worse' build orders ("Other PP,Rx,Rf,Rf" and "Other"), but the longer games don't necessarily correspond to better build orders. In Seasons 12 and 13 one of the shortest game lengths was for "PP,Rx,Rf,Rf,PP,WF,Rf,Rx" which was one of the best performing build orders, so there's another exception to the rule.
Re: Red Alert Global League: Season 13 - Standings and Statistics
When a player builds spies then they're likely to build slightly more with England too. This time the overall average figures are 3.8 spies per England player (building spies), compared with 2.9 for France and 3.5 for Germany. There are some pretty huge spikes in this graph, which suggest that there's probably one or two players/games biasing the overall results.
Finally if we look at win rates for players who built spies we can see that the data is again all over the place. The average across all seasons says English spies win 47% of their games, whereas French and German spies are at 65% and 69% respectively. I find this result hard to explain especially because the overall England win rate is very slightly higher than the other two subfactions (53% vs 52% and 51%). Potentially England players are being tempted into building spies when they normally wouldn't? Anyway it seems fair to say that the discount for the English spy isn't a bonus that many players are converting into victories.
Re: Red Alert Global League: Season 13 - Standings and Statistics
I had a request to investigate rifle-rocket ratios for different players, and this was hard to present the data in a particularly meaningful way. However I was able to plot the number of rifles and rockets queued for every game in each division. Masters and Minions look pretty similar, but Recruits generally seemed to be queueing fewer units.
The raw data for individual player's rifle-rocket ratio across all seasons is below (e.g. summing across all games then Follicle has queued roughly 10 rifles for every rocket):
Code: Select all
Follicle: 10.2
porcukor: 9.2
DVoid: 7.1
Иαιgεl: 7.0
Snufflegrunt: 6.8
Julle: 6.8
toiletbreakbrb: 6.7
Insomnic: 6.5
JuiceBox: 5.9
Chin0: 5.7
KOYK_GR: 5.7
Spy: 5.7
ConcaveCats: 5.6
kyrylo: 5.5
Chaosgrunt22: 5.5
potato: 5.4
merimursu: 5.4
AmericanBlunt_: 5.1
ZxGanon: 5.1
jungle: 4.9
worldpeace: 4.8
bobbyd: 4.6
Abarrat: 4.5
Strateeg: 4.5
Chewey: 4.4
DomoTheRussian: 4.3
raymundo: 4.3
OMnom: 4.3
J!NX: 4.3
Fahrrad: 4.1
TiTo: 4.1
JackoDerp: 4.1
ROCKhardFISTnips: 4.1
beuk: 4.0
Azure Anemone: 4.0
Daz: 4.0
BigSmoke: 4.0
Fundahl: 4.0
WaRRyKeR: 4.0
Oafa: 4.0
MicroBit: 3.9
h34vy: 3.9
mechANIC: 3.9
Declan: 3.9
vvoj: 3.9
fittsaft: 3.9
PieChild: 3.8
Murto the Ray: 3.8
squidgeny: 3.8
Mo: 3.7
MrZuerg: 3.7
jvk: 3.7
DrLuke: 3.7
anjew: 3.6
Yara: 3.6
Beef: 3.6
abcdefg30: 3.6
Mentats: 3.6
eskimo: 3.5
hamb: 3.5
Mr Cloudy: 3.5
MR C: 3.5
Orb: 3.5
crash_dash: 3.5
Metalcallous: 3.5
Clockwork: 3.5
Margot Honecker: 3.4
copla201: 3.4
PallyRoy: 3.3
shavkat: 3.3
RobLoweEscobar: 3.3
Aggr3ss1vePanda: 3.3
KSK_Nico: 3.3
Misery: 3.3
Kuba: 3.3
fris: 3.3
chouchani: 3.2
jjkramok: 3.2
dragunoff: 3.2
Goremented: 3.2
Balloon: 3.2
NethIafin: 3.2
Sigil: 3.2
weeman: 3.2
Nukin': 3.2
BlueJay: 3.2
Icesinithol: 3.2
Dualwarhead: 3.1
Upps: 3.1
Karthus: 3.1
_Bo: 3.1
DodoBirb: 3.1
Pvt_Leaf: 3.1
malboo: 3.1
Zaqzorn: 3.1
Petit Dejeuner: 3.1
poop: 3.1
netnazgul: 3.1
morkel: 3.1
jreed: 3.1
Submarine: 3.0
Blackened: 3.0
3.Lucian: 3.0
FiveAces: 3.0
SoScared: 3.0
goat: 3.0
Fruttielicious: 3.0
Craig Christ: 3.0
Han: 3.0
ioverthoughtthis: 3.0
i like men: 2.9
Doomsday: 2.9
WhoCares: 2.9
Sotsch: 2.9
Mint Spokesman: 2.9
Pinkthoth: 2.8
Dodder: 2.8
Wippie: 2.8
tux: 2.8
BigHALK: 2.8
spetsnaz84: 2.7
bullE: 2.7
Punsho: 2.7
klaas: 2.7
Raishiwi: 2.7
lundiz: 2.7
bete: 2.7
barf_openra: 2.7
LaKulta: 2.7
SinJul: 2.7
Gajcus: 2.7
SlickSloth: 2.7
maceman: 2.7
kazu.: 2.6
Ikke: 2.6
corrode: 2.6
Kernel Panic: 2.6
Kav: 2.6
SarahSicaria: 2.6
Printer: 2.6
Anykeyich: 2.6
Ohmk Torque: 2.6
Medium Tank: 2.5
despro: 2.5
Strelkov: 2.5
Therapist: 2.5
jaymanxyz: 2.5
OzzyOuzo: 2.5
Testosterone Rex: 2.5
milkman: 2.5
Duke Bones: 2.5
t: 2.5
TTTPPP: 2.4
Tailix Killa Mentor: 2.4
Lord of War: 2.4
Dying Fetus: 2.4
Nilhall: 2.4
Eugenator: 2.4
ass_pounder_4000: 2.4
zoidyberg: 2.4
lucassss: 2.4
bµg: 2.3
dang_shot: 2.3
Mees: 2.3
Jur: 2.3
Smitty: 2.3
Barxx: 2.3
noobmapmaker: 2.3
Karina: 2.3
chrisf: 2.3
Lorrydriver: 2.2
Gatekeeper: 2.2
Jamesasthenia: 2.2
ThunderStruck115: 2.2
manta151: 2.2
Ekanim: 2.2
SirCake: 2.2
Hermann G': 2.1
SeaCucumber: 2.1
Henry_the_Slav: 2.1
Bamsi: 2.1
Flecken: 2.1
Kallen: 2.0
Fenix: 2.0
Polaris: 2.0
FRenzy: 2.0
Digital Jihad: 2.0
xy: 2.0
Odourless: 2.0
Kaution: 2.0
daswaseinbefel: 1.9
flamewh33l: 1.9
shpooky: 1.9
Snake: 1.7
Antares: 1.6
Aaron_Lloyd: 1.6
DaolDnaKcol: 1.4
GoldenHippo: 1.4
manu200: 1.3
DoDoCat: 1.3
CottonTheButton: 1.3
bone|superr0x: 1.1
General: 1.1
FasTSlacK: 1.0
KillaB: 0.6
Greasyudders: 0.4
Re: Red Alert Global League: Season 13 - Standings and Statistics
Now we know when the grens are coming, but how many should we expect? This graph shows that 4-6 grens was overwhelmingly the most popular option in Season 13. Other recent seasons also saw 2-3 grens as a common choice, but it's uncommon to see a single grenadier or more than seven.
Sarah raised an interesting possibility for changing the Soviet faction bonuses - give both subfactions shock troopers and maybe parabombs in exchange for grens being only Ukraine and dogs being Russian. The obvious downside is that players will no longer be able to use dogs and grens together, and this graph aims to look at how significant that would be. Averaging across all seasons then we see 58% of Soviet builds have neither unit in them, 19% have grens, 17% have dogs and 6% have both. If the two events (building grens and building dogs) were unrelated then you'd expect roughly 3% of builds to have both, so there's a significant increase over this - i.e. there's a correlation between a player building a dog and a player building a gren. It therefore seems a shame to remove this option, but at the same time it only affects 6% of Soviet builds, so it impacts quite a small number of games. Additionally by moving the other bonuses to both factions there are new interactions available.
Re: Red Alert Global League: Season 13 - Standings and Statistics
Incidentally shockies have only been queued twice by non-Russia players - once in Season 4 by Craig Christ, and once in Season 9 by FiveAces.
As we noticed above Seasons 10 and 11 have fairly meaningless data points, but excluding these we see shock troopers giving at best a tiny advantage over Soviet T3 in general.
Finally I wanted to look at the proportion of the queue that's made up of shock troopers. There seems to be a steady decline in shock trooper spam over the seasons. Shockies only make up 3% of a typical Russian player's queue by the 400 unit mark.
I wanted to try to get an estimate of the ratios being used for shock troopers once the prerequisite buildings were built, and so the final line on the graph only includes Russian players in Seasons 11-13 who built a tech center at some point. The end of this graph is at about 13% and the equivalents for rifles and rockets are 60% and 24% - suggesting maybe a 5:2:1 ratio of rifles to rockets to shockies. We know that some Russian players don't build shock troopers even if they have the option, so maybe it's an underestimate of the number of shock troopers.
Re: Red Alert Global League: Season 13 - Standings and Statistics
The proportion of builds including these tanks has also risen and peaked in Season 10 at an incredible 99.6% of Allied builds. The high for Soviets was in Season 12 with 97.6% of builds containing a heavy tank.
Looking at the win rates then we can see medium and heavy tank usage heading towards 50% as more and more builds contain them. The deviation around Seasons 9 to 11 can be explained by the overall win rate of Allies being higher than Soviets. There aren't as many builds that skip tanks entirely, but I thought it was interesting to have a look. For the most part we see that skipping tanks has been a risky choice, but in Season 13 the 10% of builds that skipped heavy tanks had a 64% win rate.
Re: Red Alert Global League: Season 13 - Standings and Statistics
Looking at the popularity of light vehicles then we can confirm the increase in light tanks is due to players queuing more of them (rather than more players queuing them). Season 13 was the first in a while when the ranger wasn't the most popular Allied choice.
For win rates then I've included the win rate of not building each option. All of these lines are represented by a significant number of games, and most of them track pretty close to 50% win rates. It does seem that not building a light tank might give a small advantage though. At the other end we can see not building a ranger or a flak were poor performing options in Season 13.
The poor performance of the light tank might be due to players queuing them after their service depot was destroyed, and then going on to lose the game. We'll investigate this more next time by restricting our data to the first five vehicles.
Re: Red Alert Global League: Season 13 - Standings and Statistics
At the start of the game then the ranger is still the most popular option. Players are able to make use of it to get a vision advantage in engagements, ship their engi around the map and scout for rushes.
In terms of win rate then ranger and flak are the better options. There's not much in this though and we can see the flak's performance has swung wildly over the seasons.