Top 100 Biggest Upsets

Following on from Kaution's Top Ten Biggest Upsets, here is a more detailed look at some of the least expected results in RAGL and Ladder history.

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TTTPPP
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Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:25 pm

Top 100 Biggest Upsets

Post by TTTPPP »

Recently Kaution put on an excellent stream "Red Alert Top 10 Biggest Upsets in 1v1 History." If you've not seen it yet then go and watch that, and then come back and read this post as there are a lot of spoilers below.

Method

In order to seed new players for RAGL I put together a ranking based on the Glicko2 rating algorithm. This works by assigning each player a skill rating and estimating how much error there is in the rating. All the results in a week are compared against the expected outcomes and the ratings and errors are updated accordingly. The ratings are updated every week using all the games played in RAGL, the Ladder and any "normal" 1v1 tournaments (e.g. the most recent Kautious Kup). I generated this on the 25th of March 2023, so only games up until that point are included.

A couple of examples might help to make this clearer. If a player beats someone with a higher rating then their rating will increase and their opponents will decrease. As a second example imagine that two opponents have the same rating but one has a much larger error than the other. The result of the game will cause the rating of the player with the larger error will change more than their opponent's.

Internally the Glicko2 algorithm compares the performance of each player against their probability of winning, and this led me to an interesting idea. I could use the data to find the probability of each result having happened, and thereby compile a list of the biggest upsets in the data set.

Predictions

Before Kaution's stream I asked if anyone had any predictions for games that would be in the top ten, and several people replied. Here are their predictions along with the probability that the algorithm assigned the match.
  • MegaTank predicted 8.9 vs Kav (2.6%)
  • i like men joked that it would contain all of goat's losses (Mo (6.48%), SinJul (7.1%), WhoCares (13.1%), Punsho (29.74%), Clockwork (32.13%), Kav (42-43%), eskimo (44.44%), Blackened (47.41%) and morkel (54.13%))
  • Tux mentioned a game that he actually lost against Kav (98.4% chance of Kav winning).
  • dang gave me a list of four Kav games (milkman (1.82%), bµg (4.1%), Goremented (3.65%), 8.9 (2.6%)), three goat games (SinJul (7.1%), WhoCares (13.1%), Mo (6.48%)) and two morkel games (TiTo (5.6%) and iljaco (12.6%)).
The winner was dang by an absolute mile, although props to Tux for suggesting his match against Kav, which would have been the biggest ever upset if he'd actually won.

Red Alert Top 100 Biggest Upsets in 1v1 History

For each result I've included the ratings of the two players (to 99.7% accuracy). Note that these ratings are given in a different format from the RAGL Ladder as the ratings shown there are the lower bound of these intervals. In every case the losing player is (or was) a good player. This handful of results is taken from a data set of 10,000 games.

Code: Select all

   1:  1.82% milkman (1325±35) beat Kav (2087±78) on Autumn Mix (LADDER, 2023-01-14)
   2:  2.32% Nilhall (1114±107) beat Yara (1904±146) on Ore Egano RAGL S9 (RAGL, 2020-05-22)
   3:  2.53% chouchani (721±109) beat milkman (1323±35) on Paradisio (LADDER, 2023-01-24)
   4:  2.60% 8.9 (1560±61) beat Kav (2196±49) on Winding Woods (LADDER, 2021-03-26)
   5:  2.62% Misery (1433±216) beat barf_openra (2081±84) on Mountain Ridge Redux (RAGL:S8) (RAGL, 2019-10-14)
             Misery (1433±216) beat barf_openra (2081±84) on Trapped (RAGL:S8) (RAGL, 2019-10-14)
   6:  3.17% TTTPPP (1140±137) beat ROCKhardFISTnips (1838±137) on Sonora RAGL S9 (RAGL, 2020-06-09)
   7:  3.46% BigHALK (809±191) beat milkman (1343±44) on Abendland [RAGL-13] (RAGL, 2022-10-20)
   8:  3.52% KSK_Nico (1066±189) beat fris (1703±119) on Enhanced Snakes and Ladders (RAGL:S8) (RAGL, 2019-10-02)
   9:  3.64% jkalmar (1101±139) beat Eugenator (1636±46) on Offensive Operation (LADDER, 2021-08-17)
  10:  3.65% Goremented (1637±30) beat Kav (2237±51) on Amsterdamned (LADDER, 2021-03-24)
             Kaution (1425±52) beat morkel (2004±48) on Kosovo 1v1 (LADDER, 2021-05-22)
  11:  3.74% ioverthoughtthis (762±169) beat Goremented (1422±140) on Ore Egano RAGL S9 (RAGL, 2020-06-07)
  12:  3.77% Tailix Killa Mentor (1292±97) beat eskimo (1991±149) on Pitfight (RAGL:S4) (RAGL, 2017-11-08)
  13:  4.10% bµg (1661±33) beat Kav (2237±51) on Trail of Thought RAGL S9 (LADDER, 2021-03-24)
  14:  4.15% Kernel Panic (1350±69) beat Mr Cloudy (1918±66) on Discovery RAGL S9 (LADDER, 2020-12-18)
  15:  4.44% Kaution (1240±94) beat Pinkthoth (1759±50) on Mounds (LADDER, 2021-01-16)
  16:  4.52% spetsnaz84 (1146±89) beat TermX (1788±135) on Discovery RAGL S9 (LADDER, 2020-12-20)
  17:  4.64% Upps (1599±144) beat ZxGanon (2211±135) on Oil Sands (RAGL:S6) (RAGL, 2018-10-16)
  18:  4.80% J!NX (911±278) beat DVoid (1435±93) on Scorched Earth (LADDER, 2022-09-15)
             J!NX (911±278) beat DVoid (1435±93) on Trapped (LADDER, 2022-09-15)
  19:  4.88% anjew (1187±189) beat Gatekeeper (1784±141) on Ore Lord (RAGL, 2016-05-22)
  20:  5.02% jaymanxyz (1205±109) beat MicroBit (1769±106) on Behind The Veil (RAGL, 2016-10-29)
  21:  5.10% niklaskb (1011±131) beat KushBuddy (1621±144) on Below Zero (LADDER, 2023-03-05)
  22:  5.18% dragunoff (1310±175) beat mechANIC (1833±99) on Race Tracks (RAGL:S5) (RAGL, 2018-04-20)
  23:  5.34% J!NX (911±278) beat realsloth (1850±350) on Trapped (LADDER, 2022-09-09)
  24:  5.42% TTTPPP (1210±109) beat netnazgul (1771±114) on Shadowfiend II RAGL S9 (LADDER, 2020-12-16)
  25:  5.44% maceman (1613±39) beat Kav (2186±91) on Assault (LADDER, 2022-10-27)
             maceman (1613±39) beat Kav (2186±91) on Anar (LADDER, 2022-10-27)
             maceman (1613±39) beat Kav (2186±91) on Forgotten Plains (LADDER, 2022-10-23)
  26:  5.60% TiTo (1437±35) beat morkel (1940±41) on Annihilate (LADDER, 2021-01-21)
  27:  5.72% spetsnaz84 (1183±132) beat TiTo (1764±141) on Forgotten Plains (RAGL:S8) (RAGL, 2019-10-20)
  28:  5.74% bµg (1627±56) beat kazu. (2263±148) on Annihilate (LADDER, 2020-12-30)
             bµg (1627±56) beat kazu. (2263±148) on Agita RAGL S9 (LADDER, 2020-12-30)
             bµg (1627±56) beat kazu. (2263±148) on Devils Marsh (LADDER, 2020-12-29)
             bµg (1627±56) beat kazu. (2263±148) on Amsterdamned (LADDER, 2020-12-29)
             Fahrrad (1153±72) beat Goremented (1608±27) on Eden Lake (LADDER, 2021-05-14)
  29:  5.79% maceman (1497±38) beat morkel (1999±46) on Styx (LADDER, 2021-05-04)
  30:  5.81% Goremented (1560±56) beat morkel (2085±76) on Devils Marsh (LADDER, 2020-12-25)
  31:  5.90% TermX (1573±71) beat morkel (2085±76) on Timian (LADDER, 2020-12-27)
  32:  6.16% Blackened (1768±82) beat Lorrydriver (2283±90) on Shadowfiend II (RAGL:S5) (RAGL, 2018-05-11)
  33:  6.18% milkman (1200±153) beat Han (1810±175) on Scorched Earth (LADDER, 2022-03-31)
  34:  6.27% Fazzar (1571±53) beat Kav (2087±78) on The Long Night (LADDER, 2023-01-13)
  35:  6.31% netnazgul (1552±121) beat Sotsch (2055±100) on River of Gold (RAGL:S5) (RAGL, 2018-04-16)
  36:  6.48% Mo (1596±80) beat goat (2119±102) on The Swamp RAGL S9 (RAGL, 2020-06-09)
  37:  6.56% yellow (theRaffy) (1372±151) beat maceman (1903±134) on Marigold Town (LADDER, 2021-04-07)
             yellow (theRaffy) (1372±151) beat maceman (1903±134) on Winding Woods (LADDER, 2021-04-06)
  38:  6.62% bete (1149±102) beat maceman (1595±57) on Marigold Town (LADDER, 2022-01-05)
  39:  6.66% Kaution (1360±64) beat JustSomeGuy (1950±142) on Devils Marsh (LADDER, 2021-03-22)
  40:  6.81% Fahrrad (1183±69) beat Goremented (1607±27) on Forgotten Plains (LADDER, 2021-05-30)
  41:  6.93% Kaution (1173±99) beat Goremented (1588±38) on Annihilate (LADDER, 2021-01-09)
  42:  6.94% netnazgul (1552±121) beat bullE (2052±111) on River of Gold (RAGL:S5) (RAGL, 2018-04-16)
             netnazgul (1552±121) beat bullE (2052±111) on Pitfight (RAGL:S5) (RAGL, 2018-04-16)
             dang_shot (1717±39) beat Kav (2196±57) on Kosovo 1v1 (LADDER, 2021-05-23)
  43:  6.97% anjew (1725±74) beat Kav (2196±71) on Scorched Earth [RAGL-11] (RAGL, 2021-10-24)
  44:  7.03% toiletbreakbrb (1459±50) beat WaRRyKeR (2087±165) on Marigold Town (LADDER, 2021-04-09)
             netnazgul (1480±67) beat Orb (1999±103) on Eternal Warriors (LADDER, 2021-06-04)
  45:  7.05% bµg (1715±33) beat Kav (2196±57) on Clover (LADDER, 2021-05-23)
  46:  7.10% SinJul (1664±43) beat goat (2162±77) on Mounds (LADDER, 2021-02-02)
  47:  7.13% copla201 (1110±112) beat Eugenator (1600±105) on Annihilate (LADDER, 2021-01-20)
  48:  7.29% klaas (1548±141) beat FiveAces (2075±144) on Ore Lord (RAGL, 2016-07-12)
  49:  7.30% BigHALK (1228±94) beat Ekanim (1646±47) on Elevation (LADDER, 2022-12-31)
             BigHALK (1228±94) beat Ekanim (1646±47) on Territorial (LADDER, 2022-12-31)
             BigHALK (1228±94) beat Ekanim (1646±47) on Pity Light (LADDER, 2022-12-31)
  50:  7.40% matts_mum (893±124) beat comunder (1611±252) on Autumn Mix (LADDER, 2023-01-23)
             matts_mum (893±124) beat comunder (1611±252) on Deciduous Ring (LADDER, 2023-01-23)
             matts_mum (893±124) beat comunder (1611±252) on Jungle Boogie (LADDER, 2023-01-23)
  51:  7.55% MR C (965±75) beat blood (1527±146) on Amsterdamned (LADDER, 2021-03-27)
  52:  7.59% Kaution (1360±64) beat Pinkthoth (1783±40) on Annihilate (LADDER, 2021-03-19)
  53:  7.63% f0rk (1545±42) beat morkel (2011±63) on Crownsbury (LADDER, 2021-09-17)
             f0rk (1545±42) beat morkel (2011±63) on Kosovo 1v1 (LADDER, 2021-09-17)
  54:  7.64% Goremented (1193±249) beat Icesinithol (1855±256) on Agita RAGL S9 (RAGL, 2020-05-25)
  55:  7.86% Misery (1433±216) beat JackoDerp (1940±160) on Trapped (RAGL:S8) (RAGL, 2019-10-14)
             Misery (1433±216) beat JackoDerp (1940±160) on Enhanced Snakes and Ladders (RAGL:S8) (RAGL, 2019-10-14)
  56:  7.94% Kaution (1196±117) beat Jur (1677±117) on Annihilate (LADDER, 2020-12-28)
  57:  8.18% bµg (1627±56) beat morkel (2085±76) on Mounds (LADDER, 2020-12-30)
  58:  8.19% bete (1274±46) beat creo (1826±136) on Paradisio (LADDER, 2023-02-14)
             bete (1274±46) beat creo (1826±136) on Desert Strike (LADDER, 2023-02-14)
  59:  8.21% dang_shot (1347±114) beat KSK_Nico (1735±51) on Forgotten Plains (LADDER, 2021-04-10)
             dang_shot (1347±114) beat KSK_Nico (1735±51) on Kosovo 1v1 (LADDER, 2021-04-10)
  60:  8.25% Upps (1575±106) beat Orb (1986±67) on Shared Responsibility r2 (RAGL:S6) (RAGL, 2018-11-03)
  61:  8.28% dragunoff (1310±175) beat netnazgul (1754±116) on River of Gold (RAGL:S5) (RAGL, 2018-04-24)
  62:  8.35% 8.9 (1528±63) beat morkel (1934±41) on Annihilate (LADDER, 2021-01-24)
  63:  8.37% worldpeace (1226±83) beat Gajcus (1838±194) on Kosovo 1v1 (LADDER, 2021-10-02)
  64:  8.77% netnazgul (1718±65) beat Clockwork (2202±110) on Pitfight (RAGL:S7) (RAGL, 2019-04-18)
             .1 (1576±75) beat not happy (2067±120) on Almighty Petrodollar (LADDER, 2023-02-25)
  65:  8.78% MicroBit (1654±110) beat OzzyOuzo (2124±121) on Ore Lord (RAGL, 2016-10-16)
             MicroBit (1654±110) beat OzzyOuzo (2124±121) on Sidestep (RAGL, 2016-10-16)
  66:  8.80% BigHALK (809±191) beat Nilhall (1170±68) on Assault [RAGL-13] (RAGL, 2022-10-16)
             BigHALK (809±191) beat Nilhall (1170±68) on Sompio [RAGL-13] (RAGL, 2022-10-16)
  67:  8.81% Therapist (1313±104) beat Azure Anemone (2001±253) on Race Tracks (LADDER, 2022-04-22)
  68:  8.86% TTTPPP (1060±142) beat lundiz (1530±135) on Three and a half woods RAGL S9 (RAGL, 2020-05-29)
  69:  8.96% MR C (965±75) beat 9H0DxF (1850±350) on Behind The Curtain (LADDER, 2021-03-29)
  70:  9.01% bete (1274±46) beat maceman (1679±41) on Jungle Boogie (LADDER, 2023-02-10)
  71:  9.34% MR C (981±80) beat Fin (1850±350) on Annihilate (LADDER, 2021-03-22)
  72:  9.35% BigHALK (1276±67) beat Fazzar (1648±33) on Timian (LADDER, 2023-02-24)
  73:  9.38% Fahrrad (1155±83) beat toiletbreakbrb (1528±45) on Clover (LADDER, 2021-04-25)
  74:  9.43% _wyrd_ (1428±181) beat xXDESTROYERXx (1934±181) on Clover (LADDER, 2021-12-12)
  75:  9.44% Upps (1573±84) beat Orb (1968±64) on Map X (RAGL:S7) (RAGL, 2019-03-23)
  76:  9.46% noobmapmaker (1398±91) beat SirCake (1813±84) on Agenda (RAGL:S3) (RAGL, 2017-04-25)
  77:  9.47% Eugenator (1514±39) beat WaRRyKeR (2087±165) on Marigold Town (LADDER, 2021-04-13)
  78:  9.50% Gatekeeper (1815±89) beat Lorrydriver (2282±122) on Behind The Veil 2 (RAGL:S3) (RAGL, 2017-03-29)
             milkman (1343±44) beat Mr Cloudy (1788±81) on Territorial (LADDER, 2022-10-16)
  79:  9.67% milkman (1333±32) beat Fazzar (1723±30) on malevolence (LADDER, 2023-03-29)
  80:  9.70% bete (1179±76) beat Pvt_Leaf (1864±254) on Titan V.I.P v2 [RAGL-12] (RAGL, 2022-05-08)
             bete (1179±76) beat Pvt_Leaf (1864±254) on Summer Camp v2 [RAGL-12] (RAGL, 2022-05-08)
  81:  9.75% KSK_Nico (1066±189) beat SinJul (1850±350) on Trapped (RAGL:S8) (RAGL, 2019-10-03)
             KSK_Nico (1066±189) beat SinJul (1850±350) on Forgotten Plains (RAGL:S8) (RAGL, 2019-10-03)
             KSK_Nico (1066±189) beat Misery (1850±350) on Forgotten Plains (RAGL:S8) (RAGL, 2019-10-03)
             KSK_Nico (1066±189) beat Kernel Panic (1850±350) on Enhanced Snakes and Ladders (RAGL:S8) (RAGL, 2019-10-01)
             KSK_Nico (1066±189) beat Kernel Panic (1850±350) on Forgotten Plains (RAGL:S8) (RAGL, 2019-10-01)
  82:  9.76% anjew (1418±119) beat abcdefg30 (1821±93) on Dual Cold Front (RAGL, 2016-11-27)
  83:  9.79% MR C (996±74) beat Dodder (1363±42) on Dirge v3 [RAGL-11] (RAGL, 2021-11-07)
  84:  9.90% Mees (1387±179) beat Azure Anemone (2001±253) on Argon (LADDER, 2022-04-22)
  85:  9.91% milkman (1056±162) beat J!NX (1850±350) on Race Tracks (LADDER, 2022-03-13)
             milkman (1056±162) beat J!NX (1850±350) on Dirge (LADDER, 2022-03-13)
  86:  9.97% Duke Bones (1328±64) beat PallyRoy (1975±231) on Mounds[RAGL-X] (RAGL, 2021-01-26)
             MR C (998±77) beat Dingo (1850±350) on Treasure Hunt (LADDER, 2021-11-03)
  87: 10.07% TiTo (1414±40) beat kazu. (1881±104) on Timian (LADDER, 2021-01-13)
  88: 10.15% SinJul (1041±167) beat PieChild (1541±184) on Trapped (RAGL:S8) (RAGL, 2019-10-15)
  89: 10.26% Tailix Killa Mentor (1384±96) beat bµg (1944±197) on Badger Hills (RAGL:S5) (RAGL, 2018-04-24)
             Goremented (1380±98) beat KSK_Nico (1775±86) on Shadowfiend II RAGL S9 (RAGL, 2020-07-08)
  90: 10.48% bete (1274±46) beat Fazzar (1646±38) on Excavations (LADDER, 2023-02-13)
  91: 10.51% Goremented (1602±32) beat morkel (1997±49) on Offensive Operation (LADDER, 2021-04-27)
  92: 10.52% MR C (966±73) beat Zimmer (1640±259) on Crownsbury (LADDER, 2021-07-12)
  93: 10.55% MR C (965±75) beat jkalmar (1586±228) on Annihilate (LADDER, 2021-03-30)
  94: 10.65% MR C (966±73) beat zDig (1551±207) on Styx (LADDER, 2021-07-12)
  95: 10.67% Kernel Panic (1350±69) beat Widow (1791±110) on Mounds (LADDER, 2020-12-20)
  96: 10.75% _Bo (1155±165) beat KSK_Nico (1753±253) on Lacetown (RAGL:S7) (RAGL, 2019-03-12)
             _Bo (1155±165) beat KSK_Nico (1753±253) on Lacetown (RAGL:S7) (RAGL, 2019-03-12)
             spetsnaz84 (1185±83) beat luckyluke (1653±138) on Winding Woods (LADDER, 2020-12-27)
  97: 10.80% Kaution (1240±94) beat Goremented (1563±32) on Annihilate (LADDER, 2021-01-16)
             Kaution (1240±94) beat Goremented (1563±32) on Devils Marsh (LADDER, 2021-01-16)
  98: 10.86% milkman (1247±57) beat maceman (1631±62) on Sompio (LADDER, 2022-09-27)
  99: 10.98% Blackened (1783±91) beat JuiceBox (2197±107) on Behind The Veil 2 (RAGL:S3) (RAGL, 2017-07-21)
             Blackened (1783±91) beat JuiceBox (2197±107) on Winter Storm 2 (RAGL:S3) (RAGL, 2017-07-21)
 100: 10.99% Upps (1430±144) beat Jur (1947±200) on Badger Hills (RAGL:S5) (RAGL, 2018-06-28)
             Upps (1430±144) beat Jur (1947±200) on Pitfight (RAGL:S5) (RAGL, 2018-06-28)
Red Alert Top 10 Least Surprising Results in 1v1 History

I thought it would be interesting to also show some results from the other end of the list. These are the least surprising results, otherwise known as the top ten potentially biggest upsets of all time.

Code: Select all

  10: 99.50% sup (2135±61) beat Kaution (1193±103) on Pitfight (LADDER, 2021-01-01)
   9: 99.52% kazu. (2115±102) beat potato (1096±103) on Sidestep (RAGL:S4) (RAGL, 2017-11-26)
             kazu. (2115±102) beat potato (1096±103) on Pitfight (RAGL:S4) (RAGL, 2017-11-26)
   8: 99.56% Mr Cloudy (1888±64) beat ioverthoughtthis (914±140) on Amsterdamned (LADDER, 2020-12-29)
             Mr Cloudy (1888±64) beat ioverthoughtthis (914±140) on Shadowfiend II RAGL S9 (LADDER, 2020-12-29)
             Mr Cloudy (1888±64) beat ioverthoughtthis (914±140) on Timian (LADDER, 2020-12-29)
   7: 99.58% barf_openra (2081±84) beat DoDoCat (1070±128) on Climate Crisis (RAGL:S8) (RAGL, 2019-10-12)
             barf_openra (2081±84) beat DoDoCat (1070±128) on Forgotten Plains (RAGL:S8) (RAGL, 2019-10-12)
   6: 99.64% Fazzar (1729±28) beat chouchani (774±109) on Queen of the Hill (LADDER, 2023-04-01)
   5: 99.65% Kav (2196±57) beat Fahrrad (1186±69) on Kosovo 1v1 (LADDER, 2021-05-23)
   4: 99.66% Kav (2197±58) beat spetsnaz84 (1185±83) on Amsterdamned (LADDER, 2020-12-26)
   3: 99.69% morkel (1977±46) beat MR C (965±75) on Darkside Aftermath (LADDER, 2021-03-27)
   2: 99.72% kazu. (2113±101) beat chrisf (986±144) on Dual Cold Front (RAGL:S4) (RAGL, 2017-11-18)
             kazu. (2113±101) beat chrisf (986±144) on Pitfight (RAGL:S4) (RAGL, 2017-11-18)
   1: 99.73% Kav (2221±42) beat Kaution (1193±103) on Mounds (LADDER, 2021-01-06)
             Kav (2221±42) beat Kaution (1193±103) on Devils Marsh (LADDER, 2021-01-06)
Last edited by TTTPPP on Sat Apr 22, 2023 6:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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milkman
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Re: Top 100 Biggest Upsets

Post by milkman »

In 2 years people will look at this and be like: Why is milkman beating Kav an upset? Mark my words. ;)

Nice work, Trip, makes me think ladder website could add a section of most unexpected outcomes for a season or something
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ORA_CN-Hans
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Location: Shanghai,China
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Re: Top 100 Biggest Upsets

Post by ORA_CN-Hans »

I have never thought that me Vs. Yara could make it to the second place.
milkman wrote: ↑
Fri Apr 21, 2023 7:05 pm
 Nice work, Trip, makes me think ladder website could add a section of most unexpected outcomes for a season or something
By the way, when Milkman beat Kav would not be an upset, then Chouchani beat Milkman shall be the No.1.
Also by the way, please add a section of demo truck gifs.
Translating OpenRA Into Chinese...
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