RAGL break week breakdown

per soscared request.

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Blackened
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RAGL break week breakdown

Post by Blackened »

I created a new thread as I felt like this was a significant divergence from Omnom's thread

I haven't embedded the replays because I figure most people have already watched them. Also IIRC ABC has a python code that can figure out the winrate for allies/soviets. That could be useful but is not something I can do.

Also potential spoilers if some people are waiting to review matches!

Here are some statistics for the ragl maps played thus far!

129 games played so far!

18 played on Behind the Veil 2.
Longest game: 22:07
Shortest game: 5 seconds (Forfeit at start of the game)
Average game length: 12:40.
Spawn win rate: Bottom spawn has a 55.56% win rate.


17 games played on Agenda.
Longest game: 24:08
Shortest game: 2:16 between Omnom and Doomsday (delicious cheese!)
Average game length: 12:03
Spawn win rate: Right side has a 64.71% win rate.


16 games played on Pitfight
Longest game: 29:51
Shortest game: 7:45
Average game length: 13:46
Spawn win rate: Bottom has a 56.25% win rate.


13 games played on Green Belt.
Longest game: 17:36
Shortest game: 6:05
Average game length: 10:31
Spawn win rate: Left has a 53.85% win rate.


13 games played on Rocky Ravine
Longest game: 19:43
Shortest game: 7:28
Average game length: 12:58
Spawn win rate: Top has a 69.23% win rate.

12 games played on Patches
Longest game: 17:16
Shortest game: 5:09
Average game length: 12:23
Spawn win rate: Bottom has a 58.33% win rate.


11 games played on Northwest Passage
Longest game: 17:11
Shortest game: 5:18
Average game length: 12:11
Spawn win rate: Bottom has a 54.55% win rate.


10 games played on KOTG2
Longest game: 27:24
Shortest game: 7:51
Average game length: 12:44
Spawn win rate: Equal win rate.


10 games played on Winter Storm 2
Longest game: 20:25
Shortest game: 10:40
Average game length: 15:16
Spawn win rate: Equal Win rate.


9 games played on Desert Rats
Longest game: 24;31
Shortest game: 8:40
Average game length: 13:35
Spawn win rate: Bottom has a win rate of 77.78%!


As a whole I don't think these statistics show a whole lot. I included the spawn wining percentage to see if the imbalance on Rocky Ravine made any difference. As The season goes on I fully suspect the values to approach 50% It is interesting that Desert Rats has such a high disparity though.

OMnom
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Post by OMnom »

I applaud you for going through all the effort of sorting out all these replays, but I agree, that these numbers don't mean very much. Even the most bizarre statistics, such as Desert Rats, have a difference of only 5 games at the most, which is too big of a number relative to the total games played on their respective maps.

I mean, one could perhaps argue that the spawn imbalance on Rocky Ravine is why the winning percentage is so skewed, or that the top spawn on Desert Rats has a less than ideal time mining from the top right corner, which compels them to go to the farther, bottom left expansion that is most likely already taken.

I'm also rather surprised KotG has an even win ratio right now when that map is the most imbalanced of them all. The bottom spawn can tesla/turret camp the original ore of the top spawn, but the top spawn can't do the same to the bottom spawn.

eskimo
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Post by eskimo »

Thanks for the input Blackened!

I'm hoping to check out some replays also. If there's anything more anyone could add that'd be cool.

crlf
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Post by crlf »

"It is interesting that Desert Rats has such a high disparity though."
Not at all. The probability of 7/9 or more games going to bottom even if the map was as balanced as a "fair coin toss" is:

Number of different ways of getting 7 or more games going bottom / all possible results
= ( 9C7 + 9C8 + 9C9 ) / 2^9
= ( 9!/(7!2!) + 9!/(8!1!) + 9!/(9!0!) ) / 2^9
= ( 9*8/2 + 9 + 1 ) / 512
= 46/512 ... about 9%

Less than one in eleven... but equally, you'd make the same comment if the games were going the other way, so the more relevant number is 92/512 (18%), the chance of 7 or more games going to either top or bottom.

But actually, you're not looking at one map in isolation, you're looking at ten maps. What are the chances of at least one of those ten maps going 77% in favour of one side or the other, even if they're perfectly balanced?

I can't be bothered to do the maths on all of those but you're looking at 50% or more.

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SoScared
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Post by SoScared »

Yeah technically I asked for all the replays to be listed so one could quickly go through all replays with the same map. Not that any sane person would undertake such a tedious task :lol:

This is pretty cool, nicely done!

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Blackened
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Post by Blackened »

yeah this is for fun. Nothing too serious can be drawn from this. I was surprised to see patches played so much despite the general dislike I've heard from the community.

@crlf yeah also factor in skill disparity and it's easily explainable. I just thought it was peculiar.

I think more interesting statistics would be average time until each different tier is met and allies vs soviets win ratio.

@Soscared I mean if they wanted only those replays sure. But if you download all of them you can easily sort by map with the replay feature. It's not like they take up a lot of space. :P

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SoScared
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Post by SoScared »

@Blackened: Oh yeah, that's really convenient! I'm particularly interested in sampling replays by the map. Won't that be fun tho, 400-500 replay downloads. Perhaps we could have some .zips available at the end of the season.

The community dislike for Patches was a delusion brought on by a vocal minority.

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Post by Clockwork »

After games I asked players how come their home map is patches and a lot said even though they have no clue how its played and neither does the opponent so it levels the playing field which is sound tactics. I'll be 100% honest there was a vocal minority but also a silent majority vs it.

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SoScared
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Post by SoScared »

Silent majority vs Patches my arse :) There's was a vocal minority so loud it made people dizzy.

Oh sure there was a general concern about a new unfamiliar map being brought aboard but that I believe is as far as it goes.

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Clockwork
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Post by Clockwork »

It's hard to find evidence for a silent majority but you know Trump and that :lol: I can say for certain I've never heard one positive comment on patches in my days of speccing every hour of my life.

I think why its been played a lot is the fact its new and barely anyone practices it so if your less skilled its totally intelligent to put your higher skilled opponent on a uncomfortable map to even the skill gap.

Also looking at the data even though its middle its still below the average game played and is 4 away from the minimum and it's 6 from the maximum.

BUT these numbers and differences are too small to compare and its way too early to judge, we still have 3/4 more season to cover. Whether the risky addition of patches was genius or a disaster and while I'm a major critic and adamant it is a disaster we cannot tell till the end of the season, maybe I'm proven completely wrong and patches blows up with popularity (why I've tried to keep my moaning to a minimum when it was made final, I'm only this annoying on the forums don't hate me :D ) and if this is the case then bravo to you for sticking to your guns and i'll never question you again.

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Doomsday
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Post by Doomsday »

SoScared wrote: The community dislike for Patches was a delusion brought on by a vocal minority.
The fact it's picked doesn't mean people enjoy it. I could certainly see myself picking that map as my home map for several reasons.

1) The fact that it's not a fan favourite map means I can get an edge if I keep training Patches.
2) Patches favours low tier strategy so picking it against player known for tech might be a legit idea.
3) Patches is open map and certain players are better at playing open maps than others.
The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.
-Sun Tzu

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SoScared
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Post by SoScared »

Oh stop. The two of you were running around screaming about the end of the world shortly after its reveal :) I agree, lets wait until the end of the season, and see a few more games on it.

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JuiceBox
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Post by JuiceBox »

I think the biggest reason for the hate was the fact it was a brand new map. Only ever played two times before it was announced in the GL map pool and the author's notes where along the lines of "needs play testing". While alot of fan favorites are left out. From every game I have witnessed on patches it seems to have been picked for a laugh to troll the opponent including a RAGL game. Let's also take into account I have seen countless numbers of games of patches played over and over again mid week in lobbies none RAGL matches trying to give the map a little bit of credit only to conclude after every game that it's hopeless and will always produce below average games.

That is my observation

It's not the end of the world because on the odd occasion I have to play NWP too :P so it's only half the end of the world
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Murto the Ray
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Post by Murto the Ray »

The median time of matches for each map would be better than an average. Exceptional times (like the 4 second forfeit or cheeses) will skew averages greatly.

That said, it's awesome that you put this together :D

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SoScared
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Post by SoScared »

@juicebox Good thing chat logs are stored in the replay files then. Curious to see how many ''joke'' games we're talking about ;)

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